The coming months may prove decisive for the development of the war in Ukraine. Russia is likely to increase pressure in the autumn, adapt its tactics to winter conditions and may increase the number of its forces, while for Kiev the key issue will be the protection of cities and energy infrastructure from missiles and new types of drones.
This assessment was given by the commanders of the Ukrainian formations “Azov“, “Charter“ and the Third Army Corps during the YES Annual Meeting 2026, RBC-Ukraine reports. These are their military assessments and forecasts, not independently confirmed plans of the Russian command.
Beletsky: Next winter will be extremely difficult
According to the commander of the Third Army Corps, Brigadier General Andrey Beletsky, Moscow is pursuing two main goals: the complete control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the infliction of serious enough damage on the Ukrainian economy and civilian infrastructure to weaken the country's ability to continue the war.
Beletsky claims that the Russian military command has set itself a deadline of mid-April to achieve its goals in Donbas, while the political leadership in Moscow insisted on a result before the beginning of 2027. RBC-Ukraine does not cite independent confirmation of these deadlines.
According to the Ukrainian general, Kiev has the ability to hold the key defensive line of cities in the Donetsk region and even improve their positions in separate sectors.
However, Beletsky warns that the winter will be particularly severe. According to him, one of the decisive factors will be Ukraine's ability to defend its airspace from ballistic missiles and increasingly fast jet drones.
If the Ukrainian front and rear hold out through the winter, he assumes that in March or April 2027, Moscow may be faced with the need to reconsider continuing the war if it has not achieved its strategic goals.
According to Beletsky, that is when a more favorable moment for serious peace negotiations could arise. This is his prediction, and at the moment there is no confirmed data that the Kremlin is planning such a negotiation schedule.
Prokopenko expects a change in Russian tactics in October
The commander of the Azov Corps, Denis Prokopenko, known by the call sign "Radis", expects September to be the culmination of the Russian summer offensive campaign.
According to him, Moscow will strive to achieve a visible result on the front and establish itself in or around one of the key cities in the Donetsk region. Among the potential directions, he points to Dobropilya, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Svyatogorsk.
Prokopenko predicts that from October the onset of rains, fogs and shorter days may force Russian forces to change their methods of operation.
Small infantry groups have been widely used in recent months. According to the commander of “Azov“ if the weather worsens, Russian forces may once again increase the use of heavy armored vehicles and attempt mechanized breakthroughs in depth.
A claim of possible mobilization of up to 600,000 people
One of Prokopenko's most serious claims is that Russia could relatively quickly mobilize up to 600,000 troops between the end of September and the beginning of winter.
He assumes that some of these forces will appear on the front by the end of the year. However, RBC-Ukraine does not provide independent confirmation that Moscow has actually decided to mobilize on such a scale, so the number should be considered an estimate by the Ukrainian commander.
According to Prokopenko, a possible new reserve could be used not only in Donbas. He allows Russia to create additional tension on the borders with Sumy and Chernihiv regions in order to force Ukraine to keep forces away from the main areas of combat operations.
The war is now being fought underground
The commander of the Second Corps of the National Guard “Hartiya“ Igor Obolensky drew attention to another factor that, in his opinion, will determine the next stage of the war: the speed of technological changes.
According to him, solutions that were relevant two years ago are now almost irrelevant, and the technological cycle on the battlefield sometimes changes in just two or three months.
Obolensky says that in the area of his corps, part of the combat operations have literally moved underground. Ukrainian forces already had experience with underground flanking operations and even the use of small drones in such an environment.
According to him, Western armies do not have the practical experience that Ukraine has in such operations.
Air defense could prove decisive in winter
All three commanders place particular emphasis on air defense.
Obolensky believes that Ukraine and its Western partners should build a two- or three-tier defense system and accelerate the development of short-range missiles, as well as solutions for using air-to-air missiles against air targets.
This is all the more important given the changing nature of Russian air attacks. In addition to traditional strike drones and cruise missiles, Ukrainian air defenses will increasingly have to respond to faster jet drones.
Thus, the commanders' forecasts outline several main risks until the end of 2026: continued Russian pressure in Donbas, a possible shift to larger-scale mechanized operations, new air strikes against the Ukrainian rear, and the need for Kiev to adapt its technologies much faster than the traditional cycle of military production.
The optimistic scenario outlined by Beletsky is that Ukraine will hold the front and its airspace through the winter. According to him, this could create conditions in the spring of 2027 for more serious negotiations.
However, for now, this remains a military forecast. The actual development will depend on the situation on the front, the ability of both sides to replenish their losses, the production of weapons and ammunition, and the volume of international support for Ukraine.