The situation in Ukraine remains critical on the eve of the new winter season. The Russian Federation continues its attempts to turn the entire Ukrainian territory into a battlefield, intensifying attacks on critical and civilian infrastructure. Despite serious pressure, the authorities in Kiev assure that the country is entering this period in a better position than last year. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Energy preparedness and humanitarian risks
Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky said at the annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) in Kiev that Ukraine is significantly better prepared for possible Russian attacks on the energy system compared to last winter. Despite increased decentralization and preparation of backup plans, full protection of all facilities is impossible. [1, 2, 3]
These concerns are also shared by the international community. The UN has expressed “deep concern“ about the coming months, stressing the real risk of a humanitarian catastrophe due to the ongoing destruction. The situation is also complicated by economic pressure. According to Prime Minister Koretsky, Russian attacks on business could deprive the state budget of nearly 70 billion hryvnias in the form of windfall income. [1, 2]
Searching for diplomatic routes and strategy „Arachamia“
Amid the military actions, diplomatic shuttles have also become more active. The chairman of the parliamentary faction „Servant of the People“ David Arahamia revealed his personal strategy for achieving a just peace. As a participant in the negotiation process, he indicated that his goal is to talk personally with each of Vladimir Putin's entourage. According to him, increasing the number of "peace supporters" in the Kremlin is the key way to end the aggression, and for this purpose Ukraine is using channels through the Middle East, the BRICS and its European partners. The initiative coincides with renewed US attempts to "revive" the negotiations, with US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff already holding meetings in Moscow and Kiev. [1, 2, 3, 4]
At the same time, the British Prime Minister's advisor also stressed that contacts with Russia remain necessary to manage risks, while Lithuania officially rejected the Kremlin's latest “nuclear threats“, calling them an attempt at blackmail.
International support and new sanctions discord in EU
Meanwhile, new tensions have arisen in the European Union over the extension of personal sanctions against Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on Brussels to be firm and impose strict restrictions on billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman. “Now is not the time to perceive Russian oligarchs as friends“, the Ukrainian leader was categorical, emphasizing that Russian business must feel the consequences of the war. [1, 2, 3]
Despite Kiev's appeals, EU ambassadors have failed to reach a consensus on the issue. Countries such as Slovakia and France are pushing for Usmanov to be removed from the "blacklist", with Paris citing specific national security concerns. Against this backdrop, future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz from the CDU/CSU bloc has officially acknowledged a serious deficit in Ukraine's defense budget, but has promised that Berlin will provide the necessary financial and military assistance. [1, 2, 3]
In the regional aspect, given the growing tension on the eastern flank, the Polish Foreign Minister called on NATO to urgently intensify its military exercises near the Kaliningrad region in order to demonstrate readiness to deter any provocations.