On September 1, the German government openly blamed Russia for the failed drone attack on Leipzig airport. A number of countermeasures were announced at the time, including a more decisive fight against the so-called Russian shadow fleet. These are usually old, poorly maintained and insufficiently insured ships with unclear ownership, most often oil tankers, with which Russia is trying to circumvent sanctions.
But they are difficult to identify, Julian Pawlak, a maritime security expert at the Berlin-based "Science and Politics" foundation, told Deutsche Welle. Since international maritime law generally protects freedom of navigation. "The transport of these goods on the high seas is not illegal in itself. But parts of this shadow fleet are linked to so-called hybrid actions, i.e. acts of sabotage, espionage, possible drone operations and the disruptions they cause."
So far, Germany has done too little against this type of sabotage, believes Green Party representative Sarah Nanni. "The Russians are financing their war against Ukraine and their aggressive behavior towards Europe through their shadow fleet", she says. That is why it must be fought, Nanni is convinced. "This is the only thing that can bring Russia back to the negotiating table."
She accuses the government of inaction. "Other countries are already doing it, but not Germany. The interior minister says it is difficult from a technical or legal point of view. But I think the decision to inaction is political and I am sure it is wrong." By "other countries" she is referring, for example, to Finland, in whose waters in 2024 the tanker Eagle S. damaged the Estlink 2 power line and the authorities detained the ship.
A Finnish court later dismissed the charge of serious damage to property, but security expert Sönke Marahrens from the University of Kiel praised the actions of the Finns. "They sent a clear signal to the other side and said: we know what you are doing and we will stop you! It turned out that after this clear message the other side understood and changed its behavior."
It is not only Finland - in the meantime, Britain, France and Sweden have also tightened their measures against suspicious ships. In Swedish waters, the local coast guard stops and controls tankers and cargo ships suspected of being part of the shadow fleet. Ships that use false documents, are not sufficiently insured, pose a risk to maritime safety or violate environmental requirements are consistently detained.
Are Russia's threats just a bluff?
The assumptions that the federal government wants to avoid an escalation with Russia with its restraint are well-founded. Moreover, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called Germany's accusations against Moscow "the beginning of a real war".
According to Johannes Peters of the Institute for Security Policy in Kiel, however, the fears are rather unfounded. "Other European countries are taking a much more categorical approach and despite the concerns and especially despite Russian rhetoric, nothing is actually happening. Russia is not escalating the situation, but rather getting out of it. We see that particularly loaded tankers, which are extremely valuable, are currently avoiding Swedish waters, as the Swedes are increasingly stopping ships."
After the attempted attack in Leipzig, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: "The federal government will demand that the initiators of hybrid attacks pay". And Johannes Peter commented: "These kinds of words must be followed by deeds at some point. The Chancellor has put the government in a zugzwang".
Armed Russian crews on board
However, Julian Pawlak points out that controlling Russian ships is not without risk. "Of course, in such actions, one must take into account that, for example, tankers may be escorted by Russian warships, or, as is increasingly being observed, have armed crews on board associated with Russian mercenary groups."
Estonia faced this problem with the tanker Jaguar. In May 2025, its captain ignored instructions from Estonian authorities while in local territorial waters. The Estonians tried to stop and inspect the suspicious vessel, whereupon Russia sent a fighter jet to the area - and the Estonians backed down, allowing the tanker to continue on its route.
"It is also important to consider the region in which the action takes place", Pawlak points out. "In the Baltic Sea, Russia is closer from a purely geographical point of view and its options are different, including using military units for support. Further away, such as in the English Channel, this would be more difficult. "Russia cannot escort or protect every ship from the shadow fleet."
The inspections will increase Russia's costs
Johannes Peters is convinced that the fight against the ships of the shadow fleet is the right direction, but warns against having any illusions. "The inspections will not be able to eliminate the system, but they could create risks and uncertainties for Russia's shadowy fleet, which would lead to increased costs."
"If instead of three ships a day, only one can sail, this will reduce revenues by hundreds of millions. Oil revenues will also decrease if transit takes longer. And they are vital to the Russian military economy," Peters emphasizes.
Author: Christoph Hasselbach