At the EU-Arctic summit in Finland, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for continued support for Ukraine. But in Germany itself, this support is being viewed increasingly critically. According to Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, elections in eight European countries next year, including those in Saxony-Anhalt, are having an impact. However, the expert points out that giving in to the demands of right-wing populists would mean that Russia would be able to conquer even more territory in Ukraine, which would lead to an increase in refugee flows and a new vulnerability of Europe to attempts at blackmail.
"Ukraine is ultimately the front line of defense for Europeans. This means that if Ukraine falls, the danger for Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states will become even greater," the expert says.
"The goal is to depopulate Eastern Ukraine"
Heinemann-Grüder predicts that the coming winter will be extremely difficult for Ukraine, because "the current war of attrition is turning into a war of destruction - the goal is to depopulate Eastern Ukraine. In this regard, the Russians have already made significant progress".
When asked whether the pressure on Russia will increase or whether it will give in to its demands, the German political scientist says that so far US President Donald Trump has not increased the pressure, nor can he boast of any results. The danger for Ukraine arising from Trump's policy is that it will be abandoned by the US. And the Russians' goal, as they have repeatedly said, is "regime change" in Ukraine.
Heinemann-Grueder acknowledges that sentiments in many European countries are changing, although overall the majority is still in favor of continuing support for Ukraine. On the other hand, the time window for the Russians is also narrow: their income from oil and gas sales has decreased by a third. The interest rate is 14 percent, inflation remains high. There is a shortage of fuel for the army at the front, and the situation is not favorable for a new mobilization. "In this sense, Putin is also fighting a battle for domestic support, and it has not yet been won. "War is not popular in Russia and the regime can only recruit people against generous financial promises," the political scientist concludes.
"It will depend on the pressure on Russia"
Heinemann-Grueder claims that it will depend on the pressure on Russia whether there will be some breakthrough towards real negotiations and a ceasefire. "A small ray of hope is that after the talks between the American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the Russians stated that they are ready for trilateral negotiations, that is, for the first time for direct negotiations with Ukraine," the political scientist explains and adds: "Whether the Russians are ready to give up the territories that they have formally annexed but never captured depends to a large extent on the pressure from the Western countries, the Americans – but maybe also from that of China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia".
"Something like a North Korean regime in the occupied territories"
According to the political scientist, the Ukrainians know that they cannot actually regain the territories controlled by Russia - especially since over the past almost five years Russia has Russified these territories, confiscated Ukrainian property and forced people to accept Russian passports. It has de-Ukrainized these territories. And now only those who have no alternative are left there.
"The Russians have established something like a North Korean regime in these occupied territories. It will hardly be possible to cancel this. But the question is different: should Russia not receive territories that it cannot take militarily at all. In any case, at the current pace of its progress on the front, everything would drag on until the 2030s," predicts the political scientist.
Political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grüder is an expert on Eastern Europe and a senior researcher at the International Center for Conflict Research in Bonn. His main interests are politics and conflicts in the post-Soviet space and the revival of authoritarianism.
Author: Stefan Schlag ARD