The US warned its allies at the end of last week to expect delays of up to five years in the deliveries of some key weapons systems, writes "Bloomberg", BTA reported.
The reason is the depletion of American stocks after the war with Iran and the need to first restore the US military's own reserves. The warning comes at a time when European countries are increasing defense spending and are particularly urgently counting on acquiring more American missiles and air defense systems. This delay in deliveries has thus brought to the fore an important question: whether the American and European defense industries can produce enough weapons for a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.
The US armed forces have used up large quantities of missiles and interceptors during the war with Iran, notes "Bloomberg". According to an analysis by the media outlet, by August, the military had used about 1,200 of a total of approximately 2,000 Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors, about 200 of 527 THAAD missiles and about 1,000 of an estimated 3,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles in their warehouses. These quantities must be restored, while at the same time the United States continues to fulfill its commitments to supply allies and partners.
However, the pressure on stocks did not begin with the war with Iran, writes "Financial Times". The quantities of weapons in American warehouses had already decreased due to military aid to Ukraine, supplies to Israel and other American military operations. The current shortage is due precisely to the accumulation of these factors, combined with specific production constraints - insufficient capacity to produce solid-fuel rocket motors, high-quality explosives and a skilled workforce.
This explains why Washington cannot simply compensate for the spent missiles with new orders, the publication points out. The production of high-tech weapons systems takes time, and some of the key components are produced by a limited number of companies. At the same time, demand is growing simultaneously in the United States, in Europe and in the Middle East. The Pentagon has long been pushing for a faster ramp-up of production, but significant investment and additional funding are needed to replenish the stockpile.
The situation with the Patriot systems is particularly telling, Reuters reported. The system is among the few Western weapons capable of countering ballistic missiles, and is therefore of key importance to both the United States and European countries and Ukraine. According to an analysis by the agency earlier this month, Ukraine has almost exhausted its stockpile of Patriot interceptors, and future supplies remain uncertain.
Washington and American industry are already taking action, Reuters reported. Lockheed Martin recently received the first components for the production of the PAK-3 MSE from General Motors, just 22 days after the two companies signed a partnership agreement. They also plan to invest $8-9 billion to increase production of munitions, including the PAK-3 MSE, the THAAD and the Precision Strike Missile. These steps are part of the Pentagon's broader efforts to accelerate the rebuilding of the US defense industrial base.
For the US's European allies, however, the problem is unlikely to be solved soon, notes the "Financial Times". They want to increase their stocks due to the changed security environment, but at the same time they face restrictions from their main external supplier and cannot compensate for them with their own production.
Delays in the delivery of American systems are already encouraging some European countries to consider alternatives, including European air defense systems. Denmark, for example, announced that it had chosen the Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG system because of the long wait for deliveries of the "Patriot" system, the publication points out. However, this does not mean that Europe can quickly replace supplies from the American defense industry with weapons of its own production. On the contrary - the European industry itself remains closely linked to the American one.
The head of the Norwegian company "Nammo" (Nammo) Morten Brandzeg warns that Europe does not yet have the capacity to independently produce everything it needs for its own defense. "Nammo", for example, produces rocket engines for the US air-to-air AMRAAM missiles. According to him, a more realistic approach is to expand common transatlantic production, rather than sever industrial ties.
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are questioning the model in which armies rely on relatively small quantities of extremely high-tech and expensive weapons, Reuters comments. In a prolonged war, such systems can be used up faster than industry can produce them. European countries are already starting to look for a combination of high-tech systems and cheaper missiles and interceptors that can be produced in much larger quantities.
This is the main conclusion of Washington's warning about the delay in deliveries, the agency notes. It demonstrates that it is increasingly urgent for Western armies to move from a model optimized for limited military operations to a model capable of sustaining a prolonged conflict. For the United States, the immediate priority is to restore its own stocks, and for Europe - to increase and diversify production.
However, the interdependence between defense companies on both sides of the Atlantic means that a complete separation of Europe's defense industry from the United States is unlikely, Reuters points out. Rather, efforts will be made to build a larger common production base that can produce both sophisticated high-end weapons and cheaper systems in large quantities. The ability to produce quickly enough and with a large enough production capacity is one of the key lessons from the war in Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East, the agency concludes.