A prominent Kremlin-linked blogger is backing Russian President Vladimir Putin's new theory of victory. It is based on massive, long-range strikes combining ballistic missiles and jet drones against Ukraine, with the aim of forcing the country to capitulate in the winter of 2026-2027.
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
The blogger admitted that the front line is "static" - an implicit admission of Russia's near-zero progress on the battlefield in recent months - and called for an intensification of the campaign of strikes against Ukraine while resources are available.
On September 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia planned to spend $12 billion on the production of jet drones.
Zelensky said that the "Shahed" jet drones intercepted by Ukraine are now 55 percent, with Ukrainian air defenses having intercepted over 1,500 of the 2,730 launched by Russia since September 2026.
The head of Ukraine's Military Intelligence Service (GUR), Kirill Budanov, said that Ukraine is testing prototypes of interceptor drones in combat conditions and that their mass use could begin within a few months.
Ukrainian companies have already successfully field-tested several models of interceptor drones capable of intercepting Russian jet drones.
It remains unclear whether Ukraine's interceptor drone program can be scaled up and achieved success in time to thwart Russia's intensifying campaign in the winter. On September 27, a military blogger noted that Russia's strategy, which relies heavily on long-range strikes, is costly and cannot be sustained indefinitely, especially given that Ukrainian forces are also stepping up their strikes against Russia.
The ongoing Russian campaign of strikes is also explained by Ukraine's inability to intercept drones due to a shortage of Patriot systems. Ukraine's energy and other critical infrastructure are likely to fail in the coming months.
On September 25, Putin said that Ukraine "must feel" the Russian strikes for "revenge," suggesting his intention to escalate the campaign into the coming winter.
Putin may not be taking into account the long-term costs if he expects Ukraine to capitulate this winter. It is unlikely that serious ceasefire negotiations will begin.
Putin may try to delay ordering a large-scale forced mobilization—for which his officials are preparing the conditions despite Kremlin denials—until he sees whether his campaign of long-range strikes is sufficient to achieve his goals.
However, the need to replenish the huge losses of Russian forces at the front may force him to order such a mobilization as early as this fall.
Russian forces appear to be actively obstructing Ukrainian efforts to provide food to residents of the occupied town of Oleshki in Kherson Oblast (located southeast of Kherson, on the left bank of the Dnieper River), which threatens to prolong and deepen an already dire humanitarian crisis. On September 25, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibikha reported that the residents of occupied Oleshki were deprived of food and humanitarian aid, as is Russia's obligation under international humanitarian law.
The Russian occupation authorities stopped delivering food and supplies to occupied Oleshki in late December 2025, and in the spring of 2026 withdrew from the city, effectively removing themselves from the humanitarian crisis.
The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, reported on September 26 that Ukrainian forces had been delivering food to occupied Oleshki since March 2026 and had recently conducted an operation using drones to drop 4,000 kilograms of food at 100 designated locations in the city.
An unidentified aerial object - possibly a Russian drone - entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 27, as Russia continues to normalize the practice of violating European airspace. On September 27, the Romanian Ministry of National Defense announced that on the evening of September 26, Romanian radar systems detected an unidentified aircraft flying near Cilia Veche, a settlement on Romania's river border with Ukraine.
The Romanian Defense Ministry said the drone entered the country's airspace near Cilia Veche and flew parallel to the Cilia Arm of the Danube Delta before losing signal near Pardina. Two Spanish F-18 fighter jets and a Romanian IAR-330 SOCAT helicopter were scrambled to monitor the aircraft. Romanian authorities have not publicly blamed Russia for the incursion, but the incident is likely part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to normalize violations of European airspace.