Donald Trump said that a decision is imminent on whether the US should resume large-scale strikes on Iran. The US president again left open the possibility of military escalation after talks between Washington and Tehran failed to produce an agreement to end the conflict and the shipping regime through the Strait of Hormuz.
“I always think about it“, Trump told Axios, when asked if he was considering resuming the strikes. Earlier, on September 17, he said that he faced a “big decision“ whether to “destroy“ the Iranian regime or not to take such a step. According to the president, the next step will depend on the development of diplomatic contacts and Iran's willingness to make concessions.
The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz
Trump claims that US forces control the Strait of Hormuz and ensure the passage of ships. At the same time, Iran's proposal to resume traffic shows that Tehran continues to claim a role in managing traffic through the strategic waterway.
Iran offered to open the strait within seven days if the US ends the naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifts sanctions on Iranian oil and a ceasefire is agreed. Trump rejected the proposal. Subsequently, Iranian authorities confirmed that they had received an official US response to their latest initiative, but did not announce the contents of the document.
The differences are also related to a previous agreement between the two countries. Iran interprets it as an agreement that gives it a partial role in controlling shipping, while the United States and its allies reject such an understanding.
Oil flow increases, but traffic remains controversial
Trump said that in one of the last days more than 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. A US official confirmed to Axios that about 22 million barrels were exported on Friday. According to Trump, this is the largest amount since the beginning of the war.
Shipping data, however, remains mixed. In the first week of September, Lloyd's List Intelligence reported 90 passages through the strait, compared to about 130 ships per day before the war. The US administration claims to have managed to increase oil exports from the Gulf states through military escorts and alternative routes.
Washington maintains naval blockade
US Central Command said in July that US forces were strictly enforcing the blockade of ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. In the first phase of the operation, which began on April 13, more than 140 ships were diverted, nine were immobilised and more than 50 vessels carrying humanitarian cargo were allowed to pass.
This number is higher than the 125 diverted ships previously reported. The blockade was resumed on July 14 after renewed attacks on commercial vessels. Washington insists that the restrictions apply to traffic to and from Iranian ports, not to all ships passing through the strait.
Against this backdrop, regional mediators continue to try to revive indirect talks between the US and Iran. The main contentious issues remain Tehran's nuclear program, sanctions, the naval blockade and the conditions for free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: Axios