Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, considering various options, including a coastal offensive or attacks on several fronts to break the blockade of the Red Sea transport route, Reuters reported, citing regional and Western officials, BTA reported.
According to six people familiar with the preparations, the operation is expected to be launched in the coming weeks. The ground operations will be led by Yemeni forces under Saudi control and will be supported by Saudi air strikes. Saudi allies are not expected to participate directly in the fighting.
The United States already provides intelligence to support Riyadh's operations in Yemen, and some regional and European countries provide mainly defensive military assistance to the kingdom, Reuters recalls.
Saudi Arabia intervened in the civil war in neighboring Yemen in 2015, leading an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government that the Houthis had driven from the capital Sanaa. The ceasefire, agreed between the warring parties in 2022, largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a retaliatory move against the war with Iran.
One of the main goals of the planned Saudi offensive is to roll back the territorial gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced along the coast and established control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Saudis are considering two options for the operation: a limited attack in the Bab el-Mandeb region or a larger offensive involving coordinated actions on several fronts in four provinces. Depending on the scale of the operation, more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized.
Speakers for the governments of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, as well as the Houthi movement and the U.S. military, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the southern outlet to the Red Sea and a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia. Its importance has grown this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked by the conflict with Iran, Reuters recalls. According to Western diplomats and a representative of the Persian Gulf states, Riyadh has concluded that it cannot begin new peace talks with the Houthis while they control the Bab el-Mandeb and have such a significant tool for international pressure.
According to various estimates, the start of the offensive could be as soon as a week or after the midterm elections in the United States in early November.
Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected the operation to be limited in objectives and far more modest than the Riyadh-led intervention in 2015, which aimed to defeat the Houthis.
"As much as they want to completely defeat the Houthis, they also need to restore the situation before the Houthis established control over territories around Bab el-Mandeb," he believes. "Ideally, this would be a relatively limited operation to retake control of the coastal areas and return to normal maritime traffic."
After the weakening of Lebanon's "Hezbollah" over the past three years, the Houthis have become Iran's strongest ally in the Middle East. A Saudi offensive against the movement would mark a dangerous new escalation in a region rocked by conflict since the attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent US-Israeli war against Iran.
According to a Western diplomat, Washington is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting data, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen. However, the support may remain limited. Reuters reported yesterday that US President Donald Trump has rejected a request from Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support, including air strikes.
Turkey and Pakistan, which signed a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia last month, have provided military equipment used by the kingdom in Yemen.
One of the main concerns for Riyadh is how to protect its oil facilities and other critical infrastructure from missile and drone attacks by the Houthis. According to regional officials, the kingdom has asked several allies for help to strengthen its defenses. Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to protect the kingdom's land borders and help counter missile and drone attacks. Islamabad, however, has not made a decision to send troops to Yemen to participate in combat operations.
There was no comment from the defense ministries of Pakistan and Turkey about their military support for Riyadh.
Meanwhile, France announced that it would send defense systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.
Any ground operation in Yemen would rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni armed groups that Saudi Arabia and the UAE armed and trained in the earlier stages of the civil war, when the conflict had reached a bloody stalemate.
"Many of the forces opposing the Houthis are not yet organized or prepared for a sustained offensive of the type needed to repel the disciplined Houthi military machine. "They are currently being tested as the Houthis are exerting pressure on several fronts simultaneously," said Yemeni analyst Mohammed Albasha.
Yemeni forces were further divided last winter when UAE-backed fighters from the south of the country tried to seize territory in the east and announced plans to secede, but were subsequently defeated by Saudi-backed forces after a series of clashes, Reuters notes.
Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi, close to the ruling circles, warned that the success of a possible offensive would depend mainly on ground forces.