Almost half of British voters support Britain's return to the European Union, a new major poll shows, which could give Prime Minister Andy Burnham an additional argument for rethinking relations with Brussels, writes "The Guardian".
The Messina Group (TMG) survey, cited by "The Guardian", was conducted among 11,461 people between September 12 and 24, with the results weighted against the vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum. According to it, 49% of respondents support re-membership of the EU, while 28.5% are against.
The data comes days after Burnham used his first speech to a Labour Party conference as its leader to announce a review of possible options for the future relationship between the UK and the EU. He later specified that full membership restoration should be considered among them.
Burnham said that Brexit had caused "more harm than good", and the options, according to him, range from maintaining the current relationship through a customs union and returning to the single market to full EU membership.
Referendum or decision by parliament
The question of how the UK could return to the EU also divides public opinion. Almost a third of those surveyed believe that such a decision should be preceded by a new referendum. More than a sixth believe that a mandate obtained by a party in a parliamentary election would be sufficient, and approximately the same share believe that the decision could be made by parliament.
The largest single group - 25.9% - wants the UK to begin the process of returning to the EU immediately. Another 22.9% prefer this to happen within the next three years, and 8.4% - within the next decade. About 23% do not want closer relations with the EU at all.
The survey also examined attitudes towards different models of relations with Brussels. After full membership, supported by 49%, the most popular option is to maintain the current status while removing as many trade barriers as possible - 48.2% support against 20.9% disapproval.
A customs union with the EU receives the support of 47.1% of respondents against 20.7% against. 45.1% are in favor of participation in the single market, and 45.5% are in favor of associate membership.
Only 27.9% want Britain to move further away from the EU, while 41.2% are against such a policy.
Brexit is increasingly being described as a failure
When asked whether Britain did the right thing by leaving the EU, 29.7% of respondents answered yes, while 52.4% considered the decision to be wrong. Another 17.9% have no opinion.
The answers to the results of Brexit are even more categorical - 54.9% define it as a failure, 12.2% as a success, 23.2% as neither one nor the other, and 9.7% cannot judge.
More than two-thirds of the participants define trade with the EU as more important for the UK than that with the US or China, if the country is forced to choose. At the same time, four-fifths want the country to keep the British pound.
Potential benefit for Labour, but also political risk
TMG has also examined how different positions on the EU would affect support for the Labour Party. Under scenarios that involve closer ties with Brussels, the study's models predict an increase in declared support for Labour of between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points, with a significant proportion of the additional votes coming from Green and Liberal Democrat voters. This is the result of specific sociological modelling and is not a prediction of the outcome of future elections.
However, some ministers are warning Burnham to tread carefully. Two-thirds of the cabinet, including the prime minister himself, represent constituencies that voted to leave the EU in 2016.
There are concerns among ministers that reopening the Brexit debate could further divide British society. Ministers have said that the need for closer cooperation with the EU on trade and security does not necessarily mean public support for full membership.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has already said that Burnham's decision to put Brexit back at the centre of the political debate is the "biggest boost" of his political career.
There is also no final decision in Downing Street. Senior members of the prime minister's team are talking to analysts, sociologists and think tanks to gauge public sentiment towards possible re-membership. Among the options being discussed is for the Labour Party to go into the next election with at least a promise to start talks with the EU on the terms under which Britain could return to the union.
For now, Burnham has not committed to re-membership. He says the government needs to consider all options and their pros and cons before setting the country's long-term course towards the EU.
The idea has already received a positive response from some European leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron responded with a "Welcome back", while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Spain would welcome a possible British bid for re-membership.