On November 3, Americans will go to the polls, but Donald Trump's name is not on the ballot at all. Despite this, he has been appealing for weeks: "Act as if the choice is mine!" During the party convention in Dallas, Trump repeated: "My name is on the ballot."
Trump is largely right, commented Ralph Borchardt in ARD and explained: "Midterm elections in the US have always been a test of attitudes towards the incumbent president - regardless of all the peculiarities associated with the individual federal states and electoral districts."
But would the Republican candidates for the House of Representatives and Senate benefit if the center of the election fight is only President Trump? "No", Kyle Kondik, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, tells ARD. The reason is obvious - since the beginning of the war in Iran, Trump's popularity has been declining.
Republican candidates distance themselves from Trump
The main reason for this, according to the expert, is the increased prices of food and especially gasoline: "High inflation became a problem for Democrats in the last presidential election. Now the helm is in the hands of Republicans and they are bearing the negative effects."
ARD notes that there are already Republican candidates who are distancing themselves from Trump. Mike Rogers from Michigan, who is running for re-election to the Senate, says: "We need to make sure that prices come down. The war with Iran must be ended - and quickly."
Republican Maria Salazar of Florida, who is running for re-election to the House of Representatives, has criticized the brutal actions of the immigration authorities ICE in her campaign videos. Salazar, who has Latino roots, believes that Trump has gone too far. A number of other candidates have also distanced themselves from the president's policies.
The president is for artificial intelligence at all costs
"It is surprising that on other topics, Trump has apparently lost his instinct for what most people care about," political scientist Kondik told ARD. Polls show that the majority of American citizens want clear rules in the field of artificial intelligence. Protests are taking place in many places against the giant data centers that are being built. "Supporting clear rules for AI and opposing excessive data center growth would be the main demand of any populist," Kondik says. But Trump is taking the opposite position.
The expert expects Republicans to lose their majority in the House of Representatives on November 3. The only question is how big the Democrats' advantage will be. In the Senate, the situation remains unclear.
Will Trump try to change the outcome of the vote?
Can the US midterm elections be expected to be fair and free, after Trump critics fear that the president could mobilize the National Guard on Election Day, as well as immigration authorities, to intimidate voters with foreign roots? Or even to the point where Trump does not recognize the results of the vote?
"I believe that the elections will be fair", Kyle Kondik tells ARD. He admits that Trump has stated that he is ready to limit the right to vote by mail, for example, and that there is a risk that he will not recognize the results again, as he has done before, but this is unlikely to affect the final result: "So far, there are no signs of such a thing and I believe that the elections will be free and fair", the political scientist concludes.
Source: www.dw.com