Canada considers theoretical scenario of possible invasion by US, which could start with cyber attacks and attempt to establish control over Canadian energy. However, the probability of such conflict is assessed as very low by experts interviewed by BBC.
The two countries are NATO allies, exchange intelligence information and jointly participate in the defense of North America through the NORAD command. Lieutenant General of the Canadian Air Force Christopher Coats states that in his 34 years of service the possibility of attack from US territory has never been considered as a realistic scenario.
According to him, if Washington does take action against Ottawa, they may start with more difficult to recognize forms of pressure, including cyber attacks. According to Coats, the modeling of such a scenario is part of the Canadian military's preparation for various threats, since it has not yet developed a detailed response to a ground invasion.
Control over resources and resistance
Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven, believes that the close military ties between the United States and Canada could create an additional risk. According to him, the American side has information that could be used against Canada, and Canadians take Donald Trump's statements about the country's accession more seriously than many Americans.
„I think a lot of American officers would resign if they were ordered to invade Canada. They would consider it illegal and immoral,” Schmidt said.He suggested that in a military operation, Washington could seek control of Canada’s oil and mineral resources, as well as the removal of the political leadership.
According to a model reported by the Globe and Mail in January, American forces could occupy key positions in Canada in about a week. With a significant numerical advantage, the Canadian military would switch to guerrilla tactics, including ambushes, sabotage, drone attacks and hit-and-run operations. Ottawa could seek support from Britain and France. This is a theoretical model, not a developed plan for an operation.
Carney: This is risk management
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has described the likelihood of a US invasion as extremely low, but said the government is obliged to consider all options.
“This is simply risk management,” Carney said.The White House says President Donald Trump has done more than anyone else to protect Canadians. Trump himself has described the use of force against Canada as extremely unlikely and has stated that he will pursue his political goals through economic pressure.
Against this backdrop, the Canadian government is exploring ways to reduce its dependence on the United States for key technologies and defense systems, including satellite communications and military aviation.
Sources: BBC, Globe and Mail