Nearly a decade after Emmanuel Macron came to power, France has become the “weakest economic unit“ in Europe, writes Bloomberg, reports News.bg.
Macron took office in 2017 as a politician who supports business and declared his intention to carry out an “economic and political revolution“ in France. According to the publication, however, the political movement associated with the president “will practically die out“ after he leaves office in 2027.
Macron's promised “revolution“ has failed to change the basic model of French economic policy, in which government spending has traditionally been much larger than in other Western countries.
“After a decade of policy mistakes and global turmoil, government spending has become his (Macron) preferred solution; public discontent is growing, (economic) growth is slowing, and public debt is rising. Meanwhile, investors are dumping French assets amid turmoil in global government bond markets, making the country the weakest economic unit in the eurozone“, writes author William Horobin.“
In Horobin's assessment, the key test for preserving the legacy of “Macronomics“ will be the adoption of the 2027 budget by the French parliament. Even if the minority government manages to draw up a credible budget, the reforms introduced under Macron could be undone by his eventual successors.
Among the politicians who, according to the text, are leading in the polls are opposition leaders Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It is the possibility of them succeeding Macron that calls into question the long-term sustainability of his economic policy.
Khorobin defines the “chaotic end” of Macron's decade as a sharp departure from his initially stated goal of France becoming "the engine of a modernized Europe capable of standing up for itself at a time when (US President) Donald Trump is undermining NATO from within."
According to the author, the war in Ukraine and the difficulties in balancing relations between the US and China further increase the likelihood of populist political forces taking power in France. In his words, such a prospect "threatens to destroy the remnants of the post-war world order."
Among the key moments of Macron's rule, Khorobin points to the 2018 attempt to reform taxes on fossil fuels, which sparked the mass protests of the "yellow vests." The author also notes the sharp increase in government spending since the start of the pandemic and the energy crisis, which has cost the French treasury approximately 262 billion euros.
Another important point, according to him, is Macron's decision in 2024 to call early parliamentary elections.
French public finances and the president's political capital have never managed to recover after these events, the author concludes.