NATO's indecisive and piecemeal response to Russian hybrid attacks in Europe increases the risk of a more serious clash, including direct armed conflict between Russia and an Alliance country. This is what former US permanent representative to NATO Julian Smith writes in an article for Foreign Affairs.
According to Smith, Russian actions have reached a new level. In addition to cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, Moscow has already been linked to sabotage, arson and drone attacks. She cites as examples the entry of Russian drones into the airspace of NATO countries, the fall of a Russian missile in Poland and the discovery of drones with explosives near a German airport. In the text, these cases are presented as Smith's assessments, not as new official conclusions of the Alliance.
Moscow tests the limits of the Alliance
Smith believes that Russia may not immediately seek to start a direct war with NATO. According to her, Moscow is probably testing the extent to which the allies are ready to fulfill their commitments under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. In parallel, the Kremlin is trying to divide the countries of the Alliance, increase the fear of further support for Ukraine and gradually increase the political and economic cost of this assistance.
“Creeping escalation“ is the term that Smith uses for the process. According to her, each incident is investigated separately, after which NATO takes limited measures. This allows Russia to gradually raise the stakes without facing consequences that would change its behavior.
Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, hybrid attacks in Europe have become more diverse, Smith says. These include arson, sabotage of railway infrastructure, and attacks on facilities related to the production and supply of weapons to Ukraine. She notes that NATO countries have increased patrols, intelligence sharing, protection of critical infrastructure, and anti-drone capabilities, but she says there is a lack of a clear mechanism to punish Russia.
A call for a common response
Smith warns that the next incident could lead to large-scale casualties or direct armed conflict between Russia and a NATO country. She also criticized the inconsistent signals from the administration of US President Donald Trump, which she said has sometimes downplayed incidents and in others called for the shooting down of Russian aircraft violating the airspace of NATO countries.
As a deterrent, Smith suggests that the US and its allies clearly state that hybrid attacks in Europe will have concrete consequences. Among her recommendations are a common NATO response, tougher sanctions against Russia, action against Russia's "shadow fleet", expanding the Alliance's cyber and information capabilities, better protection of underwater infrastructure and increased aid to Ukraine after any such attack.
Against this backdrop, Politico reports that Germany has developed an operational plan for the country's defense in the event of a major conflict. The document considers hybrid attacks, cyber operations and influence campaigns as a possible part of military escalation and preparation for military confrontation.
Sources: unian.net