Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Russian forces will soon establish full control over Donbas. However, recent trends on the battlefield paint a different picture, The New York Times writes, reports News.bg.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northern part of Donbas has been going on for several months and has thwarted Russian attempts to encircle cities in the region that are still under Ukrainian control. According to Western analysts, Russian forces have lost dozens of square kilometers of territory during Ukraine's Operation “Vivaldi“.
In the southern part of Donbas, Russia continues its fierce attacks, trying to break through Ukrainian defense lines. However, Ukrainian troops have regrouped their forces in the area and are so far preventing Russian units from advancing in their attempts to encircle major cities in Donbas.
The publication also notes a significant slowdown in the Russian offensive along the entire front line in 2026 compared to the already slow pace of the previous year. According to the Finnish research company Black Bird Group, September 2026 was the worst month for Russia in terms of net territorial gains in Ukraine since June 2023.
Western analysts give different assessments of the changes on the front, but generally agree that Russia gained only slightly more territory than it lost this year. This contrasts sharply with the Russian Defense Ministry's statement that the Russian army has seized over 5,000 square kilometers of territory.
Doubts about the ability of Russian forces to surround the so-called "fortress cities" in Donbas are expressed even by ultranationalist Russian "military correspondents", adds The New York Times.
Russia intensifies strikes against UkraineThe publication recalls an earlier statement by Putin, according to which the establishment of full control over Donbas - whether through military force or through concessions on the part of Ukraine - is one of the conditions for ending the war.
However, Ukraine has no intention of giving up its territories.
Against the backdrop of the unfulfilled Russian goals in Donbas, Moscow has intensified air strikes against Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian officials said that at least 20 people were killed in the attacks on the night of October 7 in several cities alone.
Ukrainian authorities have described the Russian bombing as a terrorist campaign aimed at breaking the country's will to resist.
Russian infiltration tactics increasingly difficultIn early 2026, Russian forces captured Pokrovsk and continued their slow advance northward in the following months. However, according to Ukrainian servicemen and military analysts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have ultimately stabilized their defenses, thereby preventing Russia from achieving its strategic goals.
Ukrainian commanders told journalists that Russia continues to strive to restore its offensive momentum and is sending hundreds of soldiers into attacks every day.
Lieutenant Colonel Kirill Dubrovsky, commander of the 1st Corps "Azov", indicated that the implementation of "Delta" - a digital situational awareness and combat management system - played a key role in stopping the Russian offensive.
According to the publication, Russian forces rely heavily on penetration tactics. In it, small groups of soldiers pass through the so-called "destruction zone", and once they are behind Ukrainian fortifications, they regroup, wait, and then launch an attack.
George Barros, a senior analyst at the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW), told journalists that Russian forces have almost exhausted the capabilities of this tactic due to the expansion of the "destruction zone".