Russia is upgrading its Geran-type jet drones to concentrate cruise and ballistic missiles on a smaller number of priority targets in Ukraine, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, Russian forces are changing the pattern of attacks. Instead of distributing missile strikes on multiple targets over a wide area, they are using massive and sequential waves of drones and missiles against a limited number of objects. This is aimed at overloading localized Ukrainian air defense assets.
According to a Russian military blogger quoted in the ISW report, on October 7, Russian forces fired 30 cruise missiles at Kremenchuk in Poltava region, as well as at Alexandria and Svetlovodsk in Kirovograd region.
Jet drones change strikes
The report states that the “Geran“ jet drones can more reliably penetrate Ukrainian air defenses to a greater operational depth than the usual versions of this type of drone.
“This partly allows Russia to quickly escalate the conflict and concentrate series of cruise and ballistic missiles launched in several waves against priority targets throughout Ukraine“, the ISW analysis states.The institute assumes that the new scheme will be used in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the winter campaign for the period 2026-2027. According to the analysts' assessment, Russia will likely seek to break the morale of the population, make everyday life in the country unbearable and force Ukraine to accept Russian conditions.
ISW notes that such an approach has not achieved its goals in the past and is unlikely to succeed in the upcoming winter. However, concentrated strikes could further strain Ukraine's air defenses and damage critical infrastructure.
What ISW recommends
In response, Ukraine should develop and expand cost-effective means of combating drones and small cruise missiles, analysts say. According to them, this is necessary to adapt air defense to new technological solutions used by Russia.
ISW also emphasizes the importance of further Western assistance. The report mentions the American Patriot systems, which can counter ballistic missiles, as well as the need for a multi-tiered and diverse air defense system.
Ukraine already uses turrets with 12.7 mm ammunition against drones. The deputy commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Colonel Yuriy Cheryvashenko, indicated that the maximum recorded range of their destruction is 1,400 meters.
Igor Lutsenko, a military officer and co-founder of the Air Intelligence Support Center, stated that the problem with the Shahed missiles could be solved within weeks. According to him, Ukraine should achieve a 90 percent success rate in intercepting them, which is achieved against regular Shahed missiles.
Sources: unian.net