Russia is increasing the recruitment of soldiers, but the new recruits are not able to compensate for losses at the front. Ukrainian intelligence estimates the Russian ground formation in Ukraine at about 680,000 people and reports a plan is being prepared for an additional mobilization of 600,000 soldiers in 2026 and 2027.
According to data presented by Ukrainian military intelligence, Moscow plans to attract 300,000 people in each of the two years. The goal is to replenish active units, newly formed formations and losses of the Russian army. The plan is described as a response to the slowdown in the recruitment of contract soldiers and the growing losses in Ukraine.
Loss outpaces recruitment
From January to July 2026, Russian losses were about 240,000 people, with at least 140,000 of them assessed as irretrievable. During the same period, about 232,000 people were recruited on a contract basis, Ukrainian intelligence said.
A separate estimate cited by the “Guardian“ indicates that Russia is recruiting approximately 1,000 people a day, but is losing about 6,000 more soldiers a month than it is recruiting. Western officials, quoted by the British publication, indicate that this shortage has been observed for at least the last two months.
The latest data from the General Staff of Ukraine shows 1,710 Russian servicemen as losses in the last 24 hours. The total figure since the beginning of the full-scale war, according to the Ukrainian side, reaches about 1,549,490 people. The data is a Ukrainian military assessment and has not been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Increase in losses in early October
The Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brody, reported a 39.7% increase in the irretrievable and sanitary losses of Russian forces in October 1-5 compared to the same period in September.
“Russia's hidden mobilization is in action”, said Robert Brody.According to him, the simultaneous increase in the number of Russian units and the intensity of attacks is leading to new significant losses. The claim is based on data from the Ukrainian Forces of Unmanned Systems, and an independent verification of the stated percentage has not been presented.
Pressure on Russian regions
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is expanding administrative mechanisms for recruiting military personnel. Among the measures being prepared are electronic drafts, restrictions on leaving the country, freezing bank funds and bans on certain financial transactions.
According to the same data, contract recruitment is slowing down in a number of Russian regions. In the Kurgan region, the plans are being implemented at 57-69%, and in the Volgograd region, the number of potential candidates has decreased by 40% compared to 2025. These indicators are part of the assessment of the Ukrainian services and have not been confirmed by an independent Russian source.
Thus, Moscow continues to rely on a combination of contracted recruitment, high financial payments and administrative pressure, while the Russian command maintains offensive actions in the areas of Donetsk region. According to Ukrainian estimates, it is the difference between the number of new servicemen and the scale of losses that is the reason for preparing a new mobilization wave.
Sources: uatv.ua, theguardian.com, en.interfax.com.ua