The Super El Niño is strengthening and could become one of the most powerful manifestations of the climate phenomenon since 1950. The Japan Meteorological Agency reported in September a Pacific Ocean surface temperature of 4 degrees Celsius above normal in the Niño-3 region - the highest value since observations began in 1949.
The previous record was recorded in December 1997, when the deviation was 3.6 degrees. The World Meteorological Organization projects that El Niño will continue to strengthen, peaking in late 2026 and likely lasting until February 2027.
Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths Projected
The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimates that heat-related temperatures could lead to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. The estimate was made by comparing seasonal temperature forecasts with data on the relationship between temperatures and mortality in more than 24,000 regions.
This is a model projection, not a number of confirmed deaths. The researchers expect the number of days with extremely high temperatures to be 44% higher than usual. The most serious risk is emerging for countries in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and South America, where high temperatures are combined with limited access to water, health services and cooling.
Drought in some areas, rainfall in others
El Niño is the warm phase of the natural climate cycle El Niño - Southern Oscillation. It changes atmospheric circulation and normal rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of droughts in some parts of the world and heavy rains and storms in others.
India, South Asia, Central America and the Sahel region of Africa are expected to feel the drought first. As the phenomenon intensifies, the risk could spread to Indonesia, Australia, South Africa and the Caribbean. In East Africa between October and December, particularly heavy short-term rainfall is possible, and along the coast of Peru and in the southern parts of the United States - heavy rains and storms.
Peak is coming
“The WMO predicts a probability of almost 100% that the phenomenon will last until February 2027. It could become one of the most powerful events since 1950“, said the organization's secretary-general Celeste Saulo.
El Niño usually recurs every two to seven years. However, this year's event is already exceeding previous records in a key region of the Pacific Ocean, and its final scale will become clearer after the expected peak towards the end of the year.
Sources: news.bg, apnews.com, the-independent.com