A strong El Niño in 2026 could lead to 451,000 additional deaths related to extreme heat by February 2027. This is shown by a forecast from Climate Impact Lab, which covers the period from June 2026 to February 2027.
Due to the unusual intensity, scientists define the phenomenon as a “Godzilla-level“ El Niño. Its peak is still to come, which means that the worst effects of warming could manifest themselves in the coming months.
The forecast refers only to additional deaths caused by heat. It does not include victims of droughts, wildfires and floods, which can also be linked to El Niño. The countries most affected by the extreme temperatures are expected to be Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a researcher at the University of Chicago, said that “the situation is so critical” that the team could not delay publishing its findings.
Millions at risk of starvation
The danger is not limited to high temperatures. The World Food Programme warns that the effects of El Niño could push an estimated 50 million people into acute hunger and raise food prices globally.
Changes in rainfall, droughts and disruptions to agricultural production can affect several regions at once. For the poorest communities, this means smaller harvests, higher food costs and greater pressure on humanitarian systems.
What measures can limit the damage
According to scientists, early action could reduce the number of deaths as early as 2026. Among the measures mentioned are more accurate heat forecasting systems, cooling centers, strengthening medical teams and additional protection for people working outdoors.
Frederike Otto, a professor at Imperial College London, warns that human-caused climate change is intensifying the dangers of El Niño. As long as fossil fuels continue to be used, temperatures will rise and the effects of extreme heat will become more severe.
Thus, the current phenomenon becomes not only a short-term threat to health and food security, but also a warning about the risks that could become a permanent reality with continued global warming.
Sources: news.bg, apnews.com