The Russian army has lost more territory than it has captured this year, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War. Between September 1 and October 16, Russian forces lost control of over 112 sq. km, while since the beginning of 2026 they have captured about 100 sq. km.
According to the analysis, the Ukrainian operation “Vivaldi“ in the Liman direction played a key role in the change on the front. The commander of the Third Army Corps of Ukraine, Brigadier General Andrey Biletsky, stated that the actions caused significant losses to the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
„This group has effectively ceased to exist as an organized military force“, Biletsky stated.According to him, Russia will first have to restore the division's combat capability before undertaking new offensive operations towards Liman. This will further strain the Russian army's replenishment system.
Failed encirclement plan
ISW estimates that Operation „Vivaldi“ has failed the Russian plan to encircle Ukrainian forces around the so-called fortress belt in the Donetsk region from the north. Ukrainian units have reached the Zherebets River, which has shortened the front line and allowed for the construction of defenses in more advantageous positions.
The new lines allow for greater concentration of infantry and more effective use of unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery. According to the ISW assessment, if Russian forces resume their offensive towards Liman, they will again have to cross the river.
The Russian plan called for a bypass of Liman through Svetogorsk, after which the forces would meet near Barvinkovo in the Kharkiv region with another group advancing from the southwest through the Dobropol direction. After the failure of the northern flank, the Russian army was forced to switch to frontal attacks east of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
ISW points out that these directions are protected by prepared Ukrainian positions and that such a method of attack will be more difficult for Russian forces and may lead to new significant losses.
Loss and information advantage
Analysts also note an increase in Russian combat losses since the summer of 2026. According to the cited estimates, the Russian army has suffered over 40,000 killed and wounded servicemen in a few months.
The press secretary of the Third Army Corps, Alexander Borodin, stated that Russian disinformation about the losses inadvertently helped the Ukrainian operation. The main challenge for Ukrainian forces, he said, was to synchronize the actions of all units.
“When the information reaches the officers who can make decisions, their idea of the real line of combat contact is far from reality,“ says Borodin.The defeat of the Russian northern flank has ended the threat to Slavyansk from the northeast and forced the Russian command to reconsider the way it plans its operations in Donbas.
Sources: unian.net, euronews.com