Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are tied ahead of the second round of the presidential election in Brazil. According to the latest Datafolha survey, both receive 50% of the actual votes, with the difference within a margin of error of two percentage points. The runoff is scheduled for October 25.
In terms of total voting intentions, Flavio Bolsonaro has 47%, and Lula - 46%. Another 5% say they will vote with a blank or invalid ballot, and 2% have not yet decided. Thus, the Liberal Party candidate's lead from the previous survey has been reduced to one percentage point.
Bolsonaro's lead has been reduced
In the survey published a week earlier, Flavio Bolsonaro received 51% of the actual votes against 49% for Lula. At the beginning of the second round, the difference was 52% against 48% in favor of the senator.
The new survey was conducted between October 20 and 22 among 2,520 people in 154 cities. It was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-09709/2026.
In the first round, Flavio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of the actual votes, and Lula - 45.16%. The result was the most contested first round in Brazil since the restoration of democracy, Folha de São Paulo reported.
Regional differences
Flavio Bolsonaro maintains his lead in the south of the country and among evangelicals. Lula has stronger support in the northeast of Brazil, among voters with lower incomes and among those with less education.
94% of respondents said they had already made a final decision on who they would vote for. However, 53% expect a victory for Flavio Bolsonaro, while 39% predict a new term for Lula.
The two candidates faced each other in their first televised debate on October 18. The meeting was marked by sharp attacks and accusations, and according to the Associated Press, the two failed to focus the conversation mainly on their future management plans.
In the debate, Flavio Bolsonaro said that “Brazil's economy will only improve if Lula is removed from office and corruption is fought“. Lula defended his administration and his social programs.
The survey result shows a close race in the final days before the vote, but does not represent a forecast of the final result. The winner will be determined by the actual votes on October 25.
Sources: www1.folha.uol.com.br, apnews.com