Donald Trump's political calculations ahead of the U.S. midterm elections are creating increasing confusion in policy towards Ukraine. The president has simultaneously claimed that Washington continues to help Kiev, while taking steps to ease pressure on Russia and intensify criticism of the Ukrainian leadership.
According to an analysis by Reuters, the reason is related to high fuel prices, which have become a political issue ahead of the November 3 vote. Trump has blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for the rise in gasoline and diesel prices, although experts point to the war with Iran and disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz as major factors.
On October 9, Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian diesel and allow it to enter global markets. The deal was criticized by representatives of both parties, who warned that it could provide Moscow with revenue without significantly reducing prices in the United States.
Pressure on Zelensky
In parallel, Trump has stepped up his public attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On October 19, he said, “Maybe it’s time for Zelensky to find someone else to negotiate with,” after earlier calling on Ukraine to replace its leader.
The White House has presented the move as an attempt to end the war. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Reuters that Trump “wants this brutal war to end” and reserves the right to use sanctions if he believes it serves the national interest. The president himself said on October 13 that the United States continues to share intelligence with Ukraine.
But there are doubts in Kiev that support remains intact. Zelensky said Ukraine received no warning from Western partners before a deadly Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital. Reuters reported that the US military's Starshield communications system, used for drone communications and operations, was partially disrupted after an order that a US and Western official said came from the White House.
Resistance in Congress
The change in tone towards Moscow has also drawn opposition from Republicans. On October 15, 17 Democrats and five Republicans in the House of Representatives urged Trump to fully implement a sanctions law passed by Congress and signed by the president in September. In a separate letter, five leading Republican senators and six Democrats criticized the Russian diesel deal.
Republican Senator Ted Budd defended the president's course. He said the Russian revenue from the deal was "minimal," but could be enough of a concession to keep Moscow at the negotiating table.
After the election, Congress will consider defense and federal funding bills through Sept. 30, 2027. Lawmakers can use these procedures to limit or change Trump's Russia policy, but the president has veto power. This creates the potential for another showdown between the White House and Congress, regardless of which party retains the majority.
Sources: marketscreener.com, investing.com