China's possible participation in the talks between the US and Russia on the war in Ukraine could deepen disagreements between Washington and its European allies, increase pressure on Kiev and influence Beijing's calculations regarding Taiwan. This is what The Telegraph writes, citing analysts.
A possible meeting between US and Russian presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could take place in November in the Chinese city of Shenzhen within the framework of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. There is no final agreement on a trilateral meeting yet, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed earlier.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on October 19 that a similar format had been discussed at the White House. On October 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that top-level contacts were being prepared.
Risk for Kiev and European allies
According to analysts cited by the British publication, a meeting without the direct participation of Ukraine and the European Union could create an opportunity to pressure Kiev to accept agreements reached by other countries. For the US's European allies, such a format carries the risk of further distancing itself from Washington.
China could gain diplomatic prestige if it is presented as a mediator between Washington and Moscow. However, National University of Singapore associate professor Ja Yan Chun warned that the failure of a possible agreement could cast doubt on Beijing's credibility.
“If they can broker a lasting and stable peace, it will help solidify their position as a major international player“, said Ja Yan Chun.
William Yang of Crisis Group believes that Beijing is likely to focus on organizing the meeting and diplomatic gains, rather than reaching an agreement at all costs. According to him, China may seek symbolic and image dividends, while avoiding deep involvement in a conflict whose outcome remains uncertain.
The publication also points to possible consequences for US-China relations. If Washington makes concessions under economic pressure, including over supplies of rare earth metals, Beijing may take this as evidence that this approach is working. This could also affect China's assessment of Taiwan.
Five European candidates for the talks
Against this backdrop, The Telegraph names five European leaders who are being discussed as possible representatives of Europe in negotiations with Russia over Ukraine. These are Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Czech President Petr Pavel, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Sture and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.
According to diplomatic sources cited by the publication, contacts have already been established with some of the potential candidates. It is more likely that a group of leaders will be chosen, rather than a single negotiator, in order to avoid rivalry between countries and blocking individual candidacies.
Alexander Stubb points to his relationship with Trump and his participation in talks on the Ukrainian settlement as possible advantages. Petr Pavel has experience in leading NATO and in contacts with the Russian military. Giorgia Meloni called on Europe to first develop a common position before starting talks with Moscow.
European Council President Antonio Costa has dropped the offer to be a single European negotiator, The Telegraph reports. He had earlier tasked a senior aide with establishing contact with the Kremlin. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi were also among the names previously discussed.
Sources: rbc.ru, amp.dw.com