Ukrainian forces have returned more territory than they lost in 2026 on the southern front and thwarted Russian plans to attack the Dnepropetrovsk region. This is what French OSINT analyst Clement Molin claims in an analysis cited by UNIAN.
According to him, the Russian army continues to attack near Gulyaipole on a front about 30 kilometers wide, but the advance remains slow. The 35th, 36th and 5th armies, as well as the 68th army corps, are engaged in the area.
In the east, Russian forces have gone on the defensive with the participation of the 29th army. In the western part, towards Orekhov, limited offensive operations are being carried out by forces of the 58th Army. According to Molen, the main efforts are concentrated between Ternovatoye and Gulyaipole.
The analyst describes the Russian tactics as a gradual penetration in depth with the aim of reaching the road between Orekhov and Novonikolayevka. According to him, the frontal offensive towards Orekhov, which began in the summer with attempts to penetrate by small groups, is losing momentum due to the strengthening of Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainian pressure near Gulyaipole
Molen claims that Ukrainian troops have stopped the Russian offensive south of Zaporozhye and pushed Russian units from the area north of Stepnogorsk. In parallel, Ukrainian forces are putting pressure on the northern flank of the Russian group near Gulyaipole and are approaching Velika Novoselka.
According to the analysis, the Ukrainian side has regained control of the banks of the Mokri Yali River and the second defensive line in the direction of Zaporozhye. Molen assesses these actions as erasing Russian territorial gains from 2025.
He believes that this has reduced the threat of a Russian offensive towards Pokrovske, Novonikolaevka and the eastern part of Zaporozhye region, as well as towards Pavlograd and Dnieper. These assessments do not constitute official confirmation of final control over all the indicated areas.
Data on changes on the front
A separate piece of information included in the material states that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced an operation “Veles” in the Kupyansk direction. According to him, more than 100 Russian servicemen were killed in it, and Ukrainian forces advanced more than 15 kilometers through underground communications.
The Institute for the Study of War estimates that between September 1 and October 16, Russian forces lost control over 112 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. At the same time, since the beginning of the year, the Russian army has seized about 100 square kilometers, UNIAN reports, citing the institute's assessment. The data are for different time periods and do not represent a final balance for the entire year 2026.
Sources: unian.net, understandingwar.org