The split among centrist candidates in France is increasing the likelihood that the 2027 presidential election will end in a runoff between far-right Marine Le Pen and radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. According to the latest polls, Le Pen would almost certainly reach the second round, while Mélenchon is gradually overtaking the main centrist contenders.
Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron's former prime minister and so far the leading candidate of the center-right space, receives 15% support in an IFOP-Fiducial survey for “Figaro“. This is a drop of 6 percentage points since September. Mélenchon is on 16.5%, and Gabriel Attal – by 13%.
The figures put Philippe under pressure. He and Attal, also a former Macron prime minister, are arguing over who should step down to field a unified centrist candidate. Attal revived the idea of a broad primary, but the proposal was met with criticism from the president's allies who fear it will deepen divisions.
Political communications specialist Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet described the situation as “a catastrophe“. He said the centrist camp had no prepared script for the current political dynamics. He also criticized Philippe's campaign, which he said was failing to reach voters at a time of high public tension.
The center is divided on several fronts
The conflict between Philippe and Attal is not the only problem for moderate candidates. In the center-left space, Raphael Glucksmann gained momentum after winning the primary elections on October 11 with 66% of the vote. 120,787 people participated in the vote, while Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure came in second with 14%.
Glucksmann presents himself as an alternative to both Macron's policies and the radical left. However, he rules out cooperation with Mélenchon's party "France Unrestrained". According to "Le Monde" After his victory in the primary, Glucksmann has increased his support by between 4 and 5 percentage points in some polls, mainly at the expense of Mélenchon and Attal.
The moderate right-wing vote is also fragmented. Former Interior Minister Bruno Rétailleau and David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes, are competing for it. The same electorate is thus divided between several candidates, while Le Pen and Mélenchon are consolidating support at opposite ends of the political spectrum.
The elections are in April and May 2027.
President Emmanuel Macron is not eligible to run for a third consecutive term. The first round of the election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, and the runoff – for May 2.
Philippe's supporters insist he remains the only centrist with a real path to the second round. But Macron's camp is calling for all moderate candidates to give up their personal ambitions and support a common candidacy.
“We must put egos aside and find the best candidate“, said MP Perrine Goulet. According to her, if Glucksmann, Retayo, Philippe and Attal continue separately, France could head towards a runoff between “France Unrebellious“ and the National Assembly.
Sources: reuters.com, lemonde.fr