Russia is already conducting a new, covert mobilization, without announcing an official campaign and without Vladimir Putin signing a new decree. This is the assessment of the American magazine Foreign Policy, according to which the Kremlin is using financial incentives, regional quotas and pressure on vulnerable men to replenish its army.
More than five weeks have passed since the parliamentary elections in Russia, but there is no decree for a new mobilization. At the same time, The Moscow Times estimates that Russian authorities denied plans for a new draft 18 times in the three months before the elections. On September 18, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:
„There are no such plans.“
The 2022 mobilization has not formally ended
According to Foreign Policy, the Russian Supreme Court ruled in May 2023 that the mobilization period lasts from its announcement until a decree is issued to end it. Such a document has not been published. From a legal point of view, this allows the Russian authorities to refer to the regime in force since 2022 without announcing a new mobilization.
In September 2022, Putin ordered the mobilization of 300,000 people. The decision sparked a strong public backlash and mass exodus, with the Kremlin seeking to avoid a repeat of the open campaign.
Detention and pressure instead of public decree
Since June, independent Russian media outlets have reported cases of men being stopped on the streets or at their workplaces and taken to military commissariats. According to the cases described, they were pressured to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
Foreign Policy notes that among the main targets are men from poor and remote areas, including those with debts, legal problems, or other vulnerabilities. There have been reports of similar actions in the Penza region, Udmurtia, and Moscow. The scenario is reminiscent of the practices of 2022, when a disproportionately large share of those mobilized were residents of Buryatia, Dagestan, Tuva, and Yakutia.
According to the publication, regional authorities receive quotas for recruiting military personnel, while the central government distances itself from individual cases of abuse. The system combines payments for signing a contract and spot pressure, rather than officially announcing a new nationwide mobilization.
Plans for 600,000 people in 2026 and 2027
Ukrainian military and foreign intelligence say that Russia plans to recruit about 300,000 people in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Oleg Ivashchenko, said that an option to step up the campaign after the elections is being prepared, including without a large-scale public announcement and with a focus on remote regions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is losing about 43,000 servicemen per month. In the event of a sharp deterioration in the situation on the front or a drop in the number of volunteers, Putin may sign an official decree. According to Foreign Policy, such a step would show that the silent recruitment is no longer providing enough people, and could provoke a new public reaction in Russia.
Sources: unian.ua, foreignpolicy.com, ru.themoscowtimes.com