Europe will enter the winter with its lowest gas reserves since 2013. Storage facilities in the European Union were around 75% full at the end of October, leaving a smaller buffer in the event of a sharp cold snap or supply disruption.
The data are part of a new analysis by the International Energy Agency of the gas market and the 2026-2027 heating season. It states that reserve levels are the lowest in more than a decade. The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators also reported 75% storage fullness as of October 21, with levels below the nine-year average.
Europe’s weak position is the result of several consecutive factors. At the end of the 2025-2026 winter, underground storage facilities held gas equivalent to around 28% of their capacity, compared with 34% a year earlier. During the injection season, they received a volume approximately 4% below the average for the past five years.
The Strait of Hormuz restricted liquefied gas supplies
The conflict in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have affected liquefied natural gas supplies. Almost one-fifth of global liquefied gas trade passes through the strait, mainly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The flow to Europe is smaller than that to Asia, but the restrictions intensified competition for available cargoes.
Low reserves at the end of the previous winter further complicated their replenishment. Buyers delayed some purchases in anticipation of lower prices, but that expectation did not materialise. Injection accelerated in August, September and October, without reaching the levels seen in previous years.
This situation increases the region’s dependence on global liquefied natural gas supplies to meet the seasonal peak in demand and could make the region particularly vulnerable if the coming winter is colder than expected or in the event of technical incidents or other supply disruptions.The IEA points out that the pressure could carry over into 2027, as the restoration of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, while Europe and Asia will continue to compete for flexible supplies.
A smaller buffer ahead of the heating season
The 75% level is below the usual targets for filling European storage facilities. According to ACER, EU rules set a target of 90%, while difficult market conditions allow for deviations and a more flexible deadline for meeting it.
Lower reserves do not automatically mean a physical gas shortage, but they limit the market’s ability to absorb a new shock. Colder weather will increase the need for liquefied gas imports, and any infrastructure damage or further supply delays could lead to stronger price pressure.
Sources: bta.bg, euronews.com