Russia is losing up to 40,000 servicemen per month on average in 2026, with the total number of those killed and seriously wounded exceeding 380,000 in the first 10 months. This was reported by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence. The data represents an assessment by the Ukrainian side and has not been independently verified.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the trend of increasing Russian losses has continued throughout the year. The factors cited include the wider use of air and ground-based unmanned systems, precision artillery and other modern means of engagement.
Record losses in October
In October alone, Russian losses reached 54,400 servicemen killed and wounded, according to data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainian military intelligence described the figure as a record for the entire period of the full-scale war.
There has also been a change in the structure of the losses. For 2026, Ukrainian intelligence estimates the ratio between irrecoverable and medical losses at 62% to 38%. In 2025, the ratio was reversed—48% killed compared with 52% wounded.
Russia increases recruitment of servicemen
Against the backdrop of the heavy losses, the Kremlin is accelerating the recruitment of contract servicemen. By the end of October, approximately 338,000 people had been recruited, representing around 82% of the annual target. According to the assessment of Ukrainian intelligence, Russia may reach its target of 409,000 contract soldiers by the end of the year.
Around 40% of the newly recruited personnel come from the so-called special contingent. Ukrainian intelligence includes prisoners, debtors, foreigners and people with socially significant diseases in this group. Another source of reinforcements is wounded servicemen who return to service after treatment. Their share is estimated at around 20% of all wounded personnel.
Russia’s military leadership has not increased the plan for recruiting contract soldiers compared with last year. According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, this may be a sign that Moscow is considering a new wave of mobilisation. The possible factors cited include the high level of losses and the Kremlin’s stated intentions to seize the entire Donetsk region.
Ukrainian authorities also report that in October, the Defence Forces liberated 96.2 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory—10.4 square kilometres more than Russian forces managed to seize during the same period.
Sources: ukrinform.ua