A crushing victory for the Democrats is taking shape in the United States: they will have a majority in the Senate that could exceed the 54 seats already considered secure, while in the House of Representatives, where they will also have a majority, it could turn out to be quite substantial – giving them more than 250 seats.
"Trump’s coalition" from 2024 has been shattered
These midterm election results show that the Democrats have shattered the so-called „Trump coalition“ from the 2024 presidential election. At the time, Trump managed to win over not only traditional Republican groups but also some younger voters – primarily low-income and less-educated men. He also performed better than expected among Latino and African American voters, ARD writes.
According to data from the Associated Press, in the House of Representatives election, Democrats won more than 70 percent of all votes among voters aged 18 to 29, while 25 percent went to the Republicans. Compared with 2024, this represents an increase of around 20 percent for the Democrats.
Among Black voters, the Democrats appear to have recorded a six-percent increase and could win almost 90 percent of the vote, while among Latino voters they have gained seven percent and are likely to take more than 60 percent of the votes from this group. In this way, the Democrats are restoring their majorities among these two groups of American voters to their previous levels, ARD explains.
"It’s the economy, stupid!"
Both in pre-election surveys and on election day, most respondents cited the economy as the most important issue. For 39 percent of them, it was decisive in determining how to vote, while for 32 percent the state of democracy was the leading argument. Immigration was the most important issue for only 14 percent, significantly fewer than two years ago.
A large proportion of Americans are suffering from the drastic rise in prices since the beginning of the pandemic. The US war against Iran led to a further increase in petrol and diesel prices. One in five voters say they are experiencing serious financial difficulties because of inflation, while 58 percent admit that it is causing them problems in their daily lives.
Donald Trump bears the responsibility
They blame President Donald Trump for this: 65 percent believe that the economic situation has worsened because of his policies. Overall, 62 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with Trump’s performance. In 2024, his great strength was that people with low incomes and economic problems placed their trust in him, the German public broadcaster recalls.
These elections were a vote against President Trump, political scientist Michael Werz of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington told ARD: „Under Trump, the Republican Party has turned into some kind of authoritarian cult instead of upholding democratic standards, traditional conservatism or the oversight functions guaranteed to it by the Constitution“. Trump united his opponents, the political analyst added.
"The harder part now begins for the Democrats"
Asked about the Democrats’ future actions in Congress, the expert said that the harder part now begins for them – they must consolidate what they have achieved if they want to have good chances of winning the presidency as well in November 2028. He predicts that there will be forceful action against the government, against widespread corruption and against activities perceived as illegal in the judicial system, the armed forces, homeland security and other areas of the executive branch.
According to the expert, legislative activity will largely grind to a halt, but even if the Democrats manage to push symbolic bills through the House of Representatives and the Senate, the US president has veto power, which can be overridden only by a two-thirds majority in both chambers. "And that will not happen“, the representative of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington told ARD.