Vladimir Putin is not seeking a final end to the war against Ukraine, but rather a freezing of the conflict. This was stated by Dutch military analyst and defence and security expert Patrick Bolder, a strategic adviser at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, in an interview with Ukrinform.
“Putin does not want the war to end. He wants to keep it frozen,” Bolder said. According to him, such a scenario would allow Russia to keep its troops in Ukraine and put pressure on European countries and US President Donald Trump depending on the circumstances.
The 2014–2022 model
According to the analyst, Putin wants to restore the situation that existed between 2014 and 2022. Bolder describes the possible model as a conflict involving greater terror, but with fighting localized in Donbas.
He draws a parallel with Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where conflicts periodically flare up and then enter a less intense phase. In his view, this is precisely how Moscow could maintain its military presence and restore the intensity of the fighting whenever it deemed appropriate.
“He is not seeking peace, but is interested in a frozen conflict. He can reignite it whenever he wants, or reduce its intensity,” Bolder said.The reason for not bringing the soldiers home
Bolder also links Russia’s interest in a frozen war to the domestic situation in the country. According to him, Putin does not want to bring soldiers and veterans back to Russia, including people with criminal backgrounds who are now taking part in the war and could pose a threat.
The analyst believes that the return of some of the fighters could increase crime in Russia. For this reason, he says, keeping the military in Ukraine would also serve as a means of controlling a potential domestic risk.
What is expected after the US elections
UNIAN adds, citing Bloomberg, that Russia no longer believes Donald Trump will be able to force Ukraine to accept a peace agreement on Russian terms. According to the information cited, Moscow plans to intensify its strikes on Ukraine after the US midterm elections.
Bloomberg also notes that any weakening of Trump’s position after the elections could significantly affect the course of the war. This information is presented as an assessment and as claims by sources cited by the media, rather than as an officially confirmed plan of the Russian leadership.
Sources: unian.net, ukrinform.net, bloomberg.com