Latvia and Lithuania are opening up a political possibility for the deployment of NATO nuclear weapons, but at present neither country has agreed on such a step with the United States, France or the United Kingdom. In Lithuania, the constitutional ban is still in force, while in Latvia, President Edgars Rinkēvičs said that the legislation posed no such obstacle.
On September 30, Rinkēvičs said that Latvia could accept nuclear weapons if NATO collectively determined that this was necessary. He clarified, however, that no negotiations are currently under way on deploying nuclear warheads in the country.
Lithuania Must First Amend Its Constitution
In October, the Lithuanian parliament approved at first reading amendments repealing the provision that bans weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases on the country’s territory. The second reading is scheduled for January 12, 2027. Until then, the restriction remains in force.
Even if the amendment is finally adopted, this will not automatically lead to the deployment of nuclear weapons. A separate decision by the Lithuanian authorities and the consent of a country possessing such an arsenal will be required.
“In peacetime, no one in Lithuania is talking about deploying weapons of mass destruction,” Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said. He added that in the event of a crisis or war, the country could use the capabilities provided by the nuclear arsenals of NATO, the United States and France.
France Proposes Closer Nuclear Deterrence
The discussion is unfolding against the backdrop of the French initiative for “forward nuclear deterrence.” In March, President Emmanuel Macron announced that allied countries could take part in exercises and, under certain circumstances, temporarily host elements of France’s strategic forces.
“This gradual approach will allow our partners to participate in deterrence exercises and, if necessary, could include the temporary deployment of elements of France’s strategic forces on the territory of allied countries,” Macron said.
Lithuania and Latvia are among the first countries to express interest in the programme. Lithuania has also confirmed its participation in talks on the possible deployment of US strategic nuclear deterrence forces.
For Now, There Are No Agreements or Infrastructure
The main question remains whether any nuclear power is ready to deploy its weapons in the Baltic region. At present, no agreement has been reached that would create a real possibility of this happening in Latvia or Lithuania. There are also no publicly confirmed plans to build special infrastructure.
Such a step would require protected facilities, additional security measures and trained personnel. Participation in the French programme in itself does not mean that nuclear warheads will be deployed in the Baltic states. Finland and Sweden have already joined the initiative, but have maintained their position of not accepting nuclear weapons on their territory in peacetime.
The current situation differs from that in 1997, when the NATO–Russia Founding Act stated that the Alliance had no intention, plan or reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of its new members. In the near future, an actual deployment in Latvia or Lithuania appears unlikely. However, the political decisions in the two countries create the possibility of considering such a scenario in the event of a severe crisis or war.
Sources: meduza.io, lrt.lt, elysee.fr