China is discussing whether to host a trilateral meeting between the presidents of the United States, Russia and China, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, but the decision puts Beijing before a serious diplomatic dilemma. According to The New York Times, the meeting could bolster China’s claims to be a global power on an equal footing with the United States, but at the same time it would create the impression of a deal being struck between the great powers behind the backs of smaller countries.
China has confirmed that it is maintaining contacts with Russia and the United States regarding a possible meeting of the three leaders, but the event has not yet been officially confirmed. On November 4, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that Beijing was „in communication with the relevant countries“ on the matter. Two weeks earlier, she said that she had no information about a possible trilateral forum.
Ukraine is the main obstacle
China’s position on the war in Ukraine complicates Xi Jinping’s choice. Beijing is concerned that it could provide a platform for a deal between Washington and Moscow if Kyiv and Europe do not participate in the talks. This would contradict China’s publicly stated position that the peace process must include Ukraine and the European countries.
The format would bring together the leaders of the three largest nuclear powers and, according to The New York Times, would call into question the image that China is seeking to build as a defender of the interests of weaker countries. „Whatever Putin, Xi and Trump may say, the very fact of such a meeting would raise questions as to whether this is not some kind of condominium of the great powers, disregarding the interests of small states,“ says Joseph Torigian, a historian of the Chinese Communist Party at American University in Washington.
Beijing does not want to bear responsibility for the outcome
Former American diplomat and former National Security Council official Ryan Hass believes that Beijing is unlikely to turn down Trump and Putin. In his view, China would like to benefit from hosting a historic event, but is concerned about bearing responsibility in the event of failure.
„Xi Jinping avoids taking responsibility for high-profile diplomatic initiatives with unpredictable outcomes, so such a meeting would go beyond what is comfortable for the Chinese side,“ Haas says.Chinese analyst Sun Guoyu of Fudan University in Shanghai emphasizes that Beijing cannot prevent the United States and Russia from talking. If Ukraine is included on the agenda, China could present itself only as the country that provided a venue for dialogue and as a neutral observer, he points out.
Possible meeting in Shenzhen
The possible forum could take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. The idea was proposed by Vladimir Putin with the intention of discussing the end of the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that he does not want talks that could lead to a new redistribution of influence. „I really do not want this to become „Yalta 2, 3, 4“, where influence is redistributed,“ he said.
Sources: unian.net, nytimes.com