Donald Trump is entering the final years of his presidential term as a political leader unable to seek re-election, after the Republican Party suffered a heavy defeat in the U.S. midterm elections. From January, Democrats will have convincing majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, limiting his room for manoeuvre on domestic policy but not automatically depriving him of influence over foreign policy.
The first indication of the White House’s future course is the personnel change at the head of the presidential administration. Susie Wiles will be replaced by Stephen Miller – one of Trump’s most radical advisers and the architect of the strict immigration policy during his two administrations. The appointment suggests that the president may continue to rely on a hardline nationalist approach in foreign relations as well.
Trump promises a „grand deal“
The president is sending contradictory signals about the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia. He received Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin representative, in the Oval Office, while the Ukrainian representatives who had arrived for an event with First Lady Melania Trump were not received in the same way.
„There will be a grand deal,“ Trump said, adding that it could cover not only Ukraine but Europe as a whole. Indirect talks between Ukraine and Russia are planned for next week in Abu Dhabi. The mediators will be the president’s special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
The next key moment may come in mid-November, when Trump will attend the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. A meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin may take place there. In December, Trump will host the G20 summit in Doral, Florida. Putin has been invited but has not yet confirmed whether he will attend.
Congress can block funding, but not his decisions
The Democratic majority will probably launch large-scale investigations, including into the rapid enrichment of the Trump family. Congress can restrict funding through budgetary procedures, but the president retains broad powers over tariffs, troop withdrawals, alliances and military operations.
Maja Ruge of the European Council on Foreign Relations considers it unlikely that Democrats will significantly restrict Trump’s foreign policy, as they will not have a majority capable of overriding a presidential veto.
According to professors Daniel Drezner and Elizabeth Saunders, Trump could issue new threats against Canada, attack traditional American alliances or seek closer ties with Russia and China at the expense of Ukraine and Taiwan. Turning these intentions into concrete actions, however, would require troops, negotiations and significant political resources.
Iran, Israel and Cuba remain flashpoints
Foreign policy could also change with regard to Israel. On election day, Trump announced that starting next year he would end the annual U.S. aid of $3.8 billion, even though the current agreement expires in 2028. Vice President JD Vance linked voters’ dissatisfaction to support for Israel.
Iran remains the other major unknown. William Wechsler of the Atlantic Council warned that after a brief pause, the risk of large-scale military operations could rise again in the coming months. Trump could also take action against Cuba, while the future of dialogue in Venezuela also remains unclear.
Possible scenarios also include the president turning his attention to construction projects, pardons and the pursuit of political opponents. Against the backdrop of the other options, inaction in foreign policy may prove to be the least risky course during the final years of his term.
Sources: elpais.com