Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon retain the top two positions ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election. Le Pen leads in all tested first-round scenarios with between 34% and 36% of voting intentions, while Mélenchon is second with between 18% and 19%, according to the latest Toluna-Harris Interactive poll.
The survey was conducted online between November 3 and 5 among 2,101 registered voters. The data was collected from a larger sample of 2,436 French adults, selected and weighted using the quota method.
The center remains behind the two frontrunners
Le Pen’s lead over the other candidates is maintained in all the configurations examined. The leader of the “National Rally” receives between 34% and 36%, while Mélenchon stands between 18% and 19%.
In a scenario in which Édouard Philippe is the sole candidate from the center, he receives 14%, while Raphaël Glucksmann gets 12%. Mélenchon reaches 19% and has a five-point lead over Philippe. In other configurations, the gap between the “France Unbowed” candidate and the third-placed candidate reaches seven percentage points.
The poll shows weaker results for the centrist camp when Philippe and Gabriel Attal are included simultaneously. In this configuration, Mélenchon receives 18%, while Philippe and Glucksmann each get 11%. Attal remains on 6%.
Le Pen has a large lead in the second round
In a hypothetical second-round contest between Le Pen and Mélenchon, the “National Rally” candidate would receive 68% of the vote, against 32% for her rival. Le Pen also leads in matchups against Glucksmann and Philippe—by 60% to 40% and 58% to 42%, respectively.
According to Toluna-Harris Interactive, 48% of respondents expect Le Pen to win the presidential election, while 17% identify Mélenchon as the future winner. These figures measure public sentiment at the time of the survey and do not constitute a forecast of the final result.
The development of the campaign is already putting pressure on centrist and center-right candidates to seek a common approach. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he could not accept a second round between Le Pen and Mélenchon and described a possible alliance between the center and the right as “inevitable.” Édouard Philippe rejected the idea of joint primaries, leaving the question of a unified candidacy unresolved.
The first round of France’s presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, and the second round for May 2. There are still several months to go before the vote, during which candidacies, possible alliances and voter turnout could alter the balance of power.
Sources: uk.marketscreener.com, 567politics.com