A victory for Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election could become the most serious risk to European support for Ukraine. This is the warning issued by Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at Eurasia Group, in a commentary for The Guardian.
According to him, European capitals are focusing on two issues of lesser importance in the short term – who will represent the European Union in talks with Russia and what Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine will be. Rahman considers serious peace talks before the end of winter unlikely and warns that Russia has incentives to intensify the pressure in order to weaken the Ukrainian economy and public morale.
Three pillars of European support
Rahman points out that American weapons remain important for the Ukrainian army, particularly Patriot interceptors. Ukraine also relies on US intelligence for early warning, including the detection of Russian ballistic missiles. In his words, Europe is unlikely to be able to fully replace this capability before 2030.
However, the author sees the greater danger in a possible victory for Le Pen in France. According to the analysis, she would halt bilateral French aid to Ukraine, while her opposition to increasing France’s contribution to the EU budget could put overall European funding at risk.
“A Le Pen presidency could simultaneously undermine the three pillars of European support for Ukraine: funding, EU membership and sanctions against Russia,” Rahman writes. The bloc’s economic sanctions must be renewed in July 2027, which, in his view, creates an opportunity for them to be blocked by a French veto.
What the worst-case scenario looks like
The analysis notes that Italy, Spain, Greece, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia view Ukraine as a less urgent issue. As a result, the main burden could fall on a limited group of northern and western European countries, which would struggle to compensate for the withdrawal of a significant number of southern and central European states.
If American military and intelligence support were to end simultaneously, European funding were exhausted and Russia launched a new mobilization, Kyiv could be forced to accept an agreement on Moscow’s terms. These could include abandoning NATO membership, restricting Ukraine’s armed forces and political demands presented by the Kremlin as “denazification”.
Rahman warns that such a deal would lead to a humanitarian tragedy. According to him, people in territories under Russian occupation would be exposed to mass detentions, enforced disappearances and torture, while those evacuated would increase the number of internally displaced people.
Referendum and political crisis
Since the transfer of Ukrainian territory requires a referendum, President Volodymyr Zelensky would face a difficult choice. Rahman envisages two options – ignoring the result of the vote and imposing an unpopular agreement, or resigning and leaving a political vacuum.
“Each of these factors is possible on its own; taken together, they are unlikely,” the expert concludes. According to him, it is precisely this combination that should prompt EU governments to prepare a policy for the worst-case scenario, rather than rely on a future French government changing its position.
Sources: unian.net, theguardian.com