Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will have no control over the army of Belarus, if he orders an invasion of Ukraine. She can turn on him. This was stated by the Belarusian politician Valery Matskevich, representative of the Coordination Council of the Democratic Forces of Belarus, to FREEDOM TV.
In Belarus, the so-called military doctrine in which there is a clause that will allow joining the war against Ukraine. We are talking specifically about sending troops. Belarus is said to consider it possible to provide military aid to so-called friendly countries, which means sending a military contingent. This “doctrine“ is primarily needed not by Lukashenko, but by Putin.
However, Lukashenko has one big problem – he has no control over his army. As is known, Belarus is the closest ally of the Russian aggressor and provided its territory to the Russian army, which opened a front against Kiev in February 2022. However, until now Belarus has not sent its soldiers against Ukraine.
„Theoretically, now Putin can force Lukashenko to carry out certain actions (against Ukraine). The two are spending huge resources on propaganda to influence public opinion and, more specifically, the Belarusian forces”, said Valery Matskevich, according to whom, however, this tactic will not work.
Lukashenko's influence on the situation that is happening now is extremely small. And he understands very well that the army can turn against his regime, otherwise he would have sent soldiers to Ukraine a long time ago, Matskevich believes.
„If Lukashenko had given such an order, he would have had no guarantees that the Belarusian army would not go over to the side of Kiev. "I think that the Belarusian army is part of the Belarusian society and is not loyal to the imperial plans of Lukashenko and Putin," said Matskevich. A possible order by Lukashenko to attack Ukraine could be the spark that ignites the Belarusian population to overthrow the dictator's regime.