Austrian colonel Markus Reisner drew up three scenarios of how the war in Ukraine could develop from now on, reported “Ukrinform”. According to him, all three scenarios depend on how much support (in weapons and funding) Kiev will receive from its Western partners.
The first scenario, according to the military, is that the Ukrainian army makes a large-scale breakthrough, the Russians collapse and we return to the situation that was in the early 1990s. “The likelihood of this happening at the moment is small due to the enormous pressure from the Russians along the entire front,” explained the colonel.
The second scenario: the Russian army breaks through the front, Ukraine falls apart and Vladimir Putin's army practically reaches Lviv. As Reisner noted, the probability of this is also low, but slightly higher than in the first scenario. This nightmarish scenario for the Ukrainians is unlikely to happen, because the Russian army also does not have the resources at the moment for a large-scale breakthrough on the front, the military explained.
The third scenario, explains Markus Reisner, is a freezing of the conflict.
„In other words, to have some kind of truce, but this is only possible if both sides see sense in it, we have not yet seen such a situation during the war, when both sides recognize it as expedient,”. said the Austrian military expert.
Reisner noted that in a war of attrition, which requires a lot of resources, a country can only survive together with allies. “Ukraine has a problem here too – her success depends not on her own will, but actually on the will of those who support her,” said the colonel. According to him, Ukraine has already reserved its place in history with its bravery and stopping the Russian army, but from now on everything will depend on the extent to which Western countries will help Kiev.
According to him, in order to have results that can change the situation, Ukraine needs appropriate weapons systems with a long range and removal of restrictions on the use of these weapons. At the moment, the Ukrainian army practically has its hands tied, because it cannot use the full potential of the supplied Western weapons, which, on top of that, are not that many.