In the early hours of August 6, the Ukrainian army carried out a surprise invasion of Russia's Kursk Oblast, as for several days managed to capture hundreds of square kilometers of Russian territory. And although for the moment the operation is successful and the morale of Kiev is high, the American newspaper The New York Times warns of a huge danger.
The publication writes that the invasion of the Kursk region could turn into a military disaster for Ukraine, as it is a huge risk. The benefits for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are huge, as Kiev can hope to use the advance in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in future peace talks. But to do this, the captured territory must be preserved.
Russia still has a huge resource of manpower. The NYT also writes about the benefits of this invasion. If the Kremlin moves troops from the front to Ukraine to defend itself at home, Ukrainians will have an easier task of reclaiming their own land.
Lately, the morale of the Ukrainians has fallen noticeably, since the last significant successes on the battlefield were in the fall of 2022. A major blow against Russia could restore the Ukrainians' faith in the prospects of victory. Visible results for Ukraine may convince Western allies not to waste time with military aid to Ukrainians. Moreover, by inviting the Russians to their own territory, the Ukrainians show that all “red lines” and “escalation risks“ are a myth and bluff of the Kremlin, which should not be paid attention to.
The newspaper nevertheless warns that Russia will not stand idly by. The Russian army has already sent reinforcements to Kursk, and if Kiev's military adventure fails, it will be a big blow to the ZSU. Because the goal is to hold the captured territories for a long time, not just for a few days. And this requires large military resources (technique and manpower), which could be used in Donbass.