Russian President Vladimir Putin is now facing a serious dilemma. Without mobilization, he will not succeed. And with mobilization, the Russian army will get a temporary solution for a while, but a complete global failure in the future.
This is what the military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko wrote on Facebook, commenting on the information that soon the Russian Federation will again announce a large-scale mobilization to fill the huge losses in manpower that it causes on the front against Ukraine. Here's what else Kovalenko wrote:
Putin is still not taking this step (mobilization) even though Russian losses exceed 30,000 bodies per month. First, Putin perfectly understands the difference between a body that voluntarily goes to kill Ukrainians for a reward and weighs the risks, and a body that is forcibly sent to fight. A body forcibly sent to war will surrender at the first opportunity. The most vivid example of recent days are the conscripts from the Kursk region – 2000 surrendered in one week.
Imagine forced mobilization in Russia of 300 thousand and if 10% of them surrender - what an exchange fund and a disaster for the (Putin's) regime!
Secondly, even if they mobilize them, what will they arm them with? Even now in the Russian army there is a shortage of equipment in the existing units, equal to 60%-70%. That is, the mobilized soldiers will not be able to carry out combat missions and even more of them will die and even more will surrender due to the feeling of being trapped and the feeling of defeat, Kovalenko also writes.
The Ukrainian invasion in the early hours of August 6 caught the Russian army off guard and brought the war into Russian territory. Official Kiev announced that it has no intention of occupying Russian lands, but only wants to make Putin start fair and honest negotiations. Until now, the Kremlin has not given any indication of such, but only wants the capitulation of Ukraine in the war.