The Kursk operation, which initially hailed as a brilliant military coup, it could turn into a trap for the Ukrainian army. This is stated by military analysts to the American newspaper The New York Times.
Militarily, from the Russian perspective, Kiev's gambit created an opportunity to further deplete Ukraine's limited forces and make gains in other sectors of the front. This could turn Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's short-term political victory into a strategic defeat.
The Kursk invasion only extended and continued the war of attrition in which Russia has the resource advantage. Russian generals could assemble a massive new force to destroy the Ukrainian outpost in the Kursk region, or use their air and artillery advantages to force a gradual retreat. Both strategies can take weeks or even months to implement.
The reality of war is that neither side has enough resources to force their opponent to stop fighting.
In the August 6 lightning invasion, Ukrainian forces pushed back the poorly equipped and inexperienced Russian soldiers sent to guard this section of the front and advanced tens of kilometers into Russian territory. Some analysts believe that the Russian command has not sent significant forces to the area because it has no obvious military significance.
However, the pace of progress slowed significantly in the second week. Most military analysts believe that Ukraine is no longer capable of capturing strategic targets such as the Kursk NPP or the city of Kursk.
Analysts say that rather than loosening the Kremlin's grip on power, the invasion may end up driving more Russian citizens to rally around the flag on patriotic grounds.
The invasion of Kursk is, of course, a blow to Putin's reputation, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant increase in social or political discontent among the population, nor will it lead to an elite uprising.
The Kursk invasion did not prompt Russia to withdraw much of its troops from the Donbass. On the contrary, the Russian army continues to advance slowly in eastern Ukraine. Although the long-term impact of the Kursk invasion remains unclear, it can be said that it widened the front, forcing both sides to stretch their limited forces even further. After all, expanding the war into new territories over time would benefit the country with more resources.