India is on the verge of taking on a new role in the architecture of global security. For years, the country was one of the largest importers of Russian weapons. Now, however, India wants to have its own production capacity. The geopolitical change is related to Russia's war against Ukraine, writes ARD in an analysis on the subject.
According to Happymon Jacob, a security expert and founder of the Indian think tank CSDR, India's dependence on Russia has halved and Moscow is no longer present to such an extent in India's future strategic development plans. New Delhi is already seeking to diversify its allies - in addition to Russia, the country is also looking for alliances with the United States, Israel, France and Germany.
For a long time, Russia was considered India's main military partner. Fighter jets, tanks, submarines - the backbone of the Indian army for decades was built on imports from Moscow. But with the Russian attack on Ukraine, the consequences of this one-sided dependence became clear. “Some deliveries were delayed or canceled because the Russians were at war,” explains Jacob. India has begun to rethink its approach and is now investing heavily in its own defense capabilities.
Economic and geopolitical goals
Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the “Make in India” program back in 2014, ARD recalls. Now it has gained new momentum, especially in the defense industry. Tejas fighter jets, Arjun battle tank and locally produced ammunition: Indian factories are working at full speed.
Exports are also increasing - according to Jacob, by 2029 they are expected to reach a volume of over five billion euros. Already 50 percent of Indian arms exports are to the United States. "There are signs that India will play an important role in the global supply chain in defense production", said Jacob. The goals are both economic and geopolitical, writes ARD. According to the expert, it all started under duress, but India also wants to have influence - to supply weapons to countries in the Global South. “Why should only the United States or China do it? India can also play such a role&rdquo, says Jacob.
These changes in India's strategy are also attracting European companies to the country - for example, the German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems, which will open a new factory in India. Local production helps to limit import costs and also to build new capacities. The German manufacturer's new production facility is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
Russia remains a thing of the past
India is increasingly positioning itself as a player with its own rules. “This is not a country that will choose between Russia and the West, because that is an artificial choice”, Jacob told ARD. Instead, India is betting on strategic openness in all directions - both towards Russia and the Eurasian region, as well as the US, Europe and Asia, even Africa.
However, one thing is clear - the previous closeness with Russia is now disappearing. “In India, they talk about Russia in the past tense”, says Jacob. Even if military cooperation continues, for New Delhi it is something of the past, but not a model for the future.
Geopolitical crisis is an opportunity for India
Geopolitical uncertainty creates a vacuum that India is taking advantage of, even if it creates some tension in Europe, writes ARD. After Europe and the United States stopped speaking the same language, space has been created for new players. “India is increasingly actively filling the vacuum with its ideas and interests. The crisis in the world order is not necessarily bad news for India”, commented analyst Jacob.
According to him, the current situation represents a historic opportunity for New Delhi. “When the great powers make decisions, they do not ask countries like ours”. According to him, however, instability also creates new opportunities for cooperation. “In this climate of uncertainty, Europe needs to sit at the table with India - this does not necessarily mean that they have to be on the same side, but to talk as equal partners, says the expert.
Defense spending is a controversial topic in India
India's defense spending remains a very hot domestic political issue, as poverty in the country is high. However, Jacob does not believe that social development and defense spending are mutually exclusive. “A country cannot survive with defense alone, nor with good roads and hospitals alone. It must ensure both its internal and external security,” the expert commented to ARD.
India spends less than 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, which is below NATO standards. Jacob again draws attention to the geopolitical situation - the country has 15,000 kilometers of borders, some of which are disputed, has problems with Pakistan and tensions with China. All this means that India has no choice but to arm itself. “Otherwise, we will not meet the needs of our own people,” says the expert.
Author: Susanne Petersson ARD