Open source analysts continue to assess the damage on the battlefield following the series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian air bases since June 1.
According to them, available images published on June 2 show that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged four Tu-95 bombers and three Tu-22M3 bombers at the Belaya air base in the Irkutsk region and one A-50 air early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft at the Ivanovo air base in the Ivanovo region.
In addition, videos published on June 1 and 2 indicate that Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged five Tu-95 bombers and one An-22 transport aircraft at the Olenya air base in the Murmansk region.
Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation, reported on June 2 that during the strikes, Ukrainian forces destroyed at least 13 Russian fixed-wing aircraft and damaged a total of over 40 aircraft.
Military observer Tatarigami adds that Russia has not produced new Tu-95s or Tu-22M3s since 1991 and that before the series of strikes on June 1, Russia had only 70-90 Tupolev aircraft. ISW will continue to monitor for additional satellite imagery confirming the Ukrainian drone strike on Russian military bases.
A Review of the Ukraine-Russia Memorandums
On June 1 and 2, Ukrainian and Russian media outlets published the main points of the two sides' memorandums.
The full text of Ukraine's memorandum was published by the Ukrainian publication Suspilne on June 1.
It reflects Umerov's statements regarding Ukraine's proposals during the Ukrainian-Russian talks on June 2.
Key points of Ukraine's memorandum:
- A complete and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea as a precondition for peace talks.
- Confidence-building measures, including the return of all Ukrainian children and civilians and the exchange of all prisoners of war.
- The goal of the negotiations should be a permanent, lasting peace agreement, within the framework of which Ukraine would receive reliable security guarantees and preserve its territorial integrity and its ability to join any security alliance, including NATO.
- Both Russia and Ukraine should continue negotiations after the Istanbul meeting on June 2, work on confidence-building measures and prepare for a future Zelensky-Putin meeting.
The Kremlin's TASS news service published photos of Russia's memorandum after the Ukrainian-Russian talks on June 2.
Russia's memorandum is divided into three sections:
Section I:
- International recognition of the Russian occupation of all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions and Crimea and the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from these areas.
- An indefinite Ukrainian commitment to neutrality. A promise never to join military alliances and coalitions.
- A ban on the future deployment of foreign military forces and infrastructure in Ukraine.
- A termination of all existing security agreements with Ukraine and a permanent ban on Ukraine possessing nuclear weapons.
- Protection of "full rights, freedoms and interests" of Russians and Russian-speaking population in Ukraine and legislation against "glorification and propaganda of Nazism".
Section II:
- Ukraine and Russia to follow one of two paths to a ceasefire.
- The first path requires Ukraine to withdraw completely from the unoccupied areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions to an unspecified distance beyond the borders of the regions.
- The second path requires Ukraine to agree to a different set of Russian demands, including a ban on the movement of all its units except within the framework of the withdrawal from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, an end to all efforts to create Ukrainian forces, demobilization, an end to martial law, the organization of presidential elections within 100 days of the end of martial law and the election of a new government, as well as an end to all foreign military assistance and a ban on all foreign military deployment in Ukraine.
Section III:
- Signing of a longer-term ceasefire agreement after the exchange of bodies of fallen servicemen and a two- or three-day general ceasefire to remove bodies from the battlefield.
- Ukraine's complete withdrawal from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions within 30 days of the ceasefire and the election of a new government before Russia and Ukraine sign a formal peace agreement.
These analyses and memoranda highlight the complexity and seriousness of the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the significant differences in their positions and demands.