“Probably the Worst Day in the History of the Russian Air Force.“ This is how the Ukrainian military described the large-scale drone attack on Russian air bases on Sunday - an action that, according to Kiev, led to the destruction of over 40 strategic bombers, reports Politico, reports News.bg.
Although this claim is exaggerated - on June 22, 1941 alone, German aviation destroyed between 1,200 and 2,000 Soviet aircraft on the first day of Operation “Barbarossa“ - Sunday's operation was undoubtedly a heavy blow for the Russian military. It was also a stark response to the recent massive Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities, which even drew criticism from Donald Trump, accusing The Kremlin has gone “absolutely crazy.”
But will the counterstrike prove to be more than a symbolic victory?
Just days ago, Russia launched 472 drones in a night attack, a record for the war, surpassing the previous high of 355 in May. Moscow is clearly stepping up its airstrikes, aiming to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses, especially its limited supply of Patriot missiles.
With limited support from Washington, the Kremlin seems determined to exploit the vulnerability of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and break the will to resist. In this context, Ukrainian forces’ Operation “Cobweb” came as a moral and strategic boost.
According to the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), the operation has been 18 months in the making and includes simultaneous strikes on bases located thousands of kilometers from the front line - including in the Arctic Circle and near Japan. The drones were smuggled into Russia, hidden in mobile homes on trucks, with their roofs remotely opened for launch.
The SBU estimates the damage at about $7 billion and claims that 1/3 of Russia's strategic missile carriers have been put out of action. "How beautiful the Belaya airfield looks now," SBU chief General Vasyl Malyuk ironically notes in a released video.
President Zelensky called the operation "absolutely unique", emphasizing that the Ukrainian coordination base was located in close proximity to a regional FSB headquarters in Russia.
Despite the strike, however, the military balance remains in favor of the Kremlin. Russia plans to produce about 3,000 long-range missiles by 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and over 560 Kh-101 missiles, according to the head of Ukrainian foreign intelligence, Oleg Ivashchenko.
In contrast, Ukraine has about eight Patriot batteries, of which only half are operational at any given time. In addition, each ballistic missile often requires at least two interceptors to neutralize. Despite promises of new deliveries, Lockheed Martin plans to produce a maximum of 600 missiles per year - and it is unlikely that all of them will be sent to Ukraine.
In this context, the Ukrainian command is focusing on strikes on air bases and missile depots in the Russian rear. But an operation like "Payazhina" is difficult to repeat, and the air war for Ukraine is becoming increasingly unequal.