Israel's surprise attack on Iran was intended to sharply disrupt Tehran's nuclear program and extend the time it takes to develop atomic weapons. But the scale of the attacks, Israel's choice of targets and the words of its politicians suggest another, longer-term ambition - to overthrow the regime itself, writes AG. Reuters.
The strikes early Friday morning targeted not only Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories but also key figures in the country's military chain of command and its nuclear scientists, strikes that appear to be aimed at undermining Iran's credibility both at home and among its allies in the region - factors that could destabilize the Iranian leadership, experts say.
“We can assume that one of the reasons Israel is doing this is that it hopes to see regime change,“ said Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior official under President George W. Bush.
In a video message hours after Israeli fighter jets began striking Iranian nuclear facilities and air defense systems, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people directly.
“The Islamic regime that has oppressed you for almost 50 years threatens to destroy our country, the State of Israel,“ Netanyahu said.
Israel's goal is to eliminate the nuclear and ballistic missile threats, he said, but added: “As we achieve our goal, we are also clearing the way for you to achieve your freedom.
But despite the damage done by the unprecedented Israeli attack, decades of hostility toward Israel - not just among Iran's rulers but also among its Shiite majority - raise questions about the prospect of fostering sufficient public support to overthrow the an established theocratic leadership in Tehran, backed by loyal security forces.
Singh warned that no one knows what conditions would be needed to unite the opposition in Iran.
Friday's attack was the first phase of what Israel described as a long-term operation. Experts said they expected Israel to continue targeting key Iranian nuclear infrastructure to slow Tehran's march toward a nuclear bomb - even if Israel itself lacks the capacity to eliminate Iran's nuclear program.
Iran says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only. The UN nuclear watchdog concluded this week that this violates its obligations under the global nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
Israel's initial salvos targeted senior figures in Iran's military and scientific elites. They destroyed much of the country's air defense system and destroyed the above-ground uranium enrichment plant at the Iranian nuclear site.
“As a democratic country, the State of Israel believes that it is up to the people of the country to shape its national policy and elect its government“, the Israeli embassy in Washington told Reuters. “Iran's future can only be determined by the Iranian people.“
Netanyahu called for a change in the Iranian government as early as September.
The administration of US President Donald Trump, while agreeing with Israel's strikes and helping its close ally fend off Iran's retaliatory missile attacks, has given no indication that it is seeking regime change in Tehran.
The White House and Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York also did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter.
Israel still has a long way to go if it wants to dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities, and military analysts have long said it may be impossible to completely disable the well-fortified sites scattered around Iran.
The Israeli government has also warned that Iran's nuclear program cannot be completely destroyed by military campaign.
“There is no way to destroy a nuclear program by military means”, Israel's national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel's Channel 13 television. However, a military campaign could pave the way for a deal with the United States that would thwart the nuclear program.
Analysts also remain skeptical that Israel would have the ammunition needed to destroy Iran's nuclear program on its own.
“Israel probably cannot completely dismantle the nuclear program on its own without American involvement,” Sima Shain, a former senior Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, told reporters.
“Ideally, Israel would prefer to see regime change, there is no doubt about that”, she said. But such change would come with risks, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East who is now with the Atlantic Council.
If Israel succeeds in removing Iran's leadership, there is no guarantee that the successor who emerges will not be even more hard-line in his pursuit of conflict with Israel.
”For years, many in Israel have insisted that regime change in Iran would usher in a new and better day - that nothing could be worse than the current theocratic regime,” Panikoff said. “But history tells us that it can always be worse.“