Russian forces have recently advanced northeast of Pokrovsk and may try to advance towards Dobropilya as part of efforts to encircle Pokrovsk and bypass the Ukrainian fortified belt in Donetsk region from the west in the coming months.
This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns about.
The Russian advance west and northwest of Razine most directly supports the encirclement of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd - an operational objective that Russian forces have been pursuing for the past 18 months.
A further Russian advance towards Dobropilya would mean that Russian forces are making advancing west of Ukraine's fortified wall a tactical priority. This is a series of fortified towns that form the backbone of Kiev's defenses.
Thus, the Kremlin is trying to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from their positions under the pressure of encirclement.
This is a clear signal that Russia does not want to conduct a frontal attack against the Ukrainian army.
Such an operation would be in line with Russia's latest tactics and operational concepts, aimed at advancing by using smaller partial encirclements to seize territory, rather than attempting rapid and deep penetration at the operational level into Ukraine's defenses, which Russian forces currently lack the capabilities to do.
Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to deliver long-range strikes targeting Russia's military-industrial complex.
Ukraine's Western partners should continue to provide assistance to Ukraine and cooperate with the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex. base.
European intelligence agencies continue to report that Russia is increasing the deployment of chemical weapons in Ukraine in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which Russia is a signatory to.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Siversk. Russian forces have advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk.