In the future, Russia could attack one or more NATO countries. However, such a scenario would not be similar to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by Belgian Defense Minister Theo Franken in an interview with the Ukrainian newspaper "Telegraph".
"I think they will not start with a full-scale invasion of NATO territory. Rather, something like a scenario similar to the one in Donbas in 2014 could happen: it all starts with an "uprising" of the Russian-speaking minority, which must be "protected by the homeland". Then the so-called "little green men" appear, who are supposedly not Russian soldiers, but simply people who suddenly came to protect the Russian minority," he said.
Franken noted that Russia has done similar things in Georgia and Moldova. He believes that Moscow would not dare to launch an open attack on a NATO member state, including Finland, because the Russians know that they will lose.
"The approach would be much more sophisticated. Conventionally speaking, they could seize a city in Estonia, for example, and then say: "We have to protect the Russians here. This city is ours. This is Russia," the Belgian defense minister added.
Franken noted that a full-scale Russian invasion of one or more NATO member states is unlikely. According to him, it may be a more complex intervention.