Russia is insisting on having the right to veto any Western security guarantees for Ukraine - in an attempt to thwart ongoing US and European efforts for lasting peace in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on August 20 that any serious discussions without Russian participation are "a road to nowhere".
This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes.
Granting the right to veto would allow the Kremlin to dictate terms that would weaken Ukraine for another Russian invasion. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently said that Russia cannot tolerate the presence of troops from NATO member states in Ukraine as part of any security guarantees.
European leaders recently issued a joint statement reaffirming that no peace agreement should place restrictions on the armed forces or on cooperation with third countries, nor can Russia have a veto on Ukraine’s path to joining the European Union (EU) or NATO.
European Commission (EC) Vice President Kaia Kalas said on August 19 that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted to keep promises.
The Kremlin appears to insist that any security guarantees be based on those proposed in the 2022 Istanbul Framework Protocol, which would give Russia and its allies the right to veto Western military aid to Ukraine and leave Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats.
The security guarantees proposed in the 2022 draft Istanbul Protocol treat Russia as a neutral "guarantor state" for Ukraine's security, along with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, without identifying Russia as a belligerent party in the war.
The Kremlin has continued to indicate that Putin is unwilling to hold an immediate bilateral meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky within the timeframe proposed by US President Donald Trump. Lavrov said on August 20 that Putin had confirmed his readiness to continue direct negotiations with Ukraine in the "Istanbul" format.
Russian and Ukrainian delegations have participated in three rounds of bilateral talks in Istanbul since February 2025, which have resulted in an exchange of prisoners of war.
Lavrov said that a summit between Putin and Zelensky would require serious preparation and could take time. Several U.S. officials said Putin had promised Trump he would meet with Zelensky after a multilateral summit between the leaders of the United States, Ukraine and Europe on Aug. 18.
On Aug. 18, Trump said Zelensky and Putin needed to meet urgently and that waiting too long before a bilateral summit at the leadership level would lead to thousands of deaths.
The Russian economy continues to struggle with budget deficits as a result of increased defense spending and Western sanctions. "Reuters" announced on August 20 that the Russian government is preparing to raise taxes and cut spending, trying to maintain defense spending amid an economic slowdown.
Russian Finance Ministry data showed that the Kremlin reported a budget deficit of 4.9 trillion rubles (about $61 billion) from January to August 2025, exceeding the target for the full year.
The chairman of the Budget and Financial Markets Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, Anatoly Artamonov, said in late July 2025 that Russia must "urgently begin fiscal consolidation" amid increasingly pessimistic economic indicators and a decline in oil and gas revenues.
"Reuters" reported that Russia spends more than 17 trillion rubles (about $211 billion), or 41 percent of its federal budget, on defense and national security. A Russian government source said that Russia's defense spending likely represents more than the stated eight percent of Russian GDP and estimated that defense spending is unlikely to decrease in 2026 or in the event of a ceasefire.
The Russian government is increasingly withdrawing funds from the health and education sectors, and Russian officials are pushing for Russia to reallocate funds from non-defense budget items to the defense sector. "Reuters" reported that Russia has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of around 20 percent; however, this figure is much less important because Russia is a country that uses oil and gas revenues and the Russian sovereign wealth fund to finance its war in Ukraine. The sovereign wealth fund is a state investment fund from which Russia draws money to avoid accumulating debt, but Putin has been steadily depleting the fund's liquid reserves to finance his war in Ukraine.
Russia is jeopardizing its economic stability and the livelihoods of Russian civilians to fuel its growing defense-industrial base and support the military effort in Ukraine. Russia faces a growing list of war costs, including providing compensation to servicemen and their families, expanding and sponsoring recruitment campaigns for the war in Ukraine.
Russian officials have repeatedly tried to convince the Russian population that the federal budget prioritizes civilian and social spending, while continuing to allocate larger amounts of the budget to defense spending.
The Russian government must also address the future costs of compensating veterans and their families, providing them with financial, medical and psychological support from the government for decades to come.
The secondary tariffs are likely to force Russia to sell oil below market prices, which could reduce the inflow of foreign funds into the Russian economy and deplete Russia's main source of wealth. Bloomberg reported on August 20 that India's state-owned oil refiners purchased increased quantities of Russian oil from August 18 to 19. Russia's deputy trade representative to India, Yevgeny Griva, told Bloomberg on August 20 that Russia expects India to continue buying Russian oil because of the five percent discount.
Bloomberg reported that Chinese oil refiners have increased oil purchases as some Indian companies pulled out in August amid U.S. tariff threats.
The Kremlin is reportedly considering replacing the head of Russia's Investigative Committee (Sledkom), Alexander Bastrykin, possibly as part of an effort to form a younger elite. Moscow business newspaper "Vedomosti" reported on August 20 that the Kremlin was considering Bastrykin for the vacant position of chairman of the Supreme Court of Russia.
Unspecified sources close to the Russian presidential administration, the Supreme Court and the judicial community told Vedomosti that replacing Bastrykin represented an opportunity to "bring new blood" to the Sledkom, given that Bastrykin has led the Sledkom since 2011 and is approaching the age of 72. The Kremlin has allowed Bastrykin to remain in his post beyond the age of 70 in September 2024.
The Kremlin's replacement of Bastrykin is in line with Putin's recent practice of reassigning older members of his inner circle to other positions rather than retiring or dismissing them. As seen in the appointment of former Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to lead the Russian shipbuilding industry in May 2025.