The handshake between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikolay Pashinyan confirmed the intention to end a decades-long conflict.
The two countries fought for years for control of the restive Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is mainly inhabited by Armenians. The war ended in 2023 with Azerbaijan's military victory and the flight of more than 100,000 Armenians from their homes.
Russia is losing influence in the former Soviet republics
The handshake between Aliyev and Pashinyan in August this year also included another person - US President Donald Trump. The US is mediating the agreement. Trump promised that American companies would guarantee the infrastructure and security of a corridor that would give Azerbaijan access to its enclave of Nakhichevan, which is accessible through the territory of Armenia.
The active American involvement is a clear signal of the decline of Russia's influence in the former Soviet republics. And this weakening influence is far from being limited to Azerbaijan.
Officially, Moscow welcomes the achievement of consensus. “The meeting of the Caucasian republics in Washington with the mediation of the American side should be assessed positively. We hope that this is a step towards peace,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. But some other influential figures who do not take an official position reveal completely different sentiments. “This is a terrible humiliation for Russia (…) This is a complete loss, a total catastrophe for our policy in the South Caucasus,” wrote Alexander Dugin, considered one of the ideologists of Kremlin policy.
“We want to be independent,” says Fariz Ismailzadeh, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament who sees rapprochement with the US as logical. "We do not want to break away from Russia and become puppets of the West. We are making new alliances in Central Asia and with Turkey to protect ourselves," Ismailzadeh added. Baku and Ankara signed a strategic partnership agreement back in 2010.
Increasingly strained relations between Moscow and Baku
At the same time, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have been strained in recent months. The reason for this was the downing of an Azerbaijani plane in December 2024 after it was hit by a Russian anti-aircraft missile on its way to the Chechen capital Grozny. 38 people lost their lives.
Moscow initially ignored the incident, but Putin later apologized to President Aliyev that the downing took place in Russian airspace. “Russia did not showed the necessary respect", Azerbaijani political scientist Nariman Aliyev told DW.
Diplomatic problems also followed. Russian police detained Azerbaijanis on charges of terrorism. Azerbaijani security forces detained Russian citizens suspected of drug trafficking.
According to media reports, Russia recently attacked the energy facilities of the Azerbaijani company SOCAR in the Ukrainian city of Odessa. The Azerbaijani government has threatened to lift the ban on arms supplies to Ukraine if Russia continues with the bombing, Ismailzadeh said.
The war in Ukraine distracts Russia
Countries like Azerbaijan see an opportunity in the war in Ukraine, the MP added. “It distracts Russia. We have more freedom to strengthen our diplomatic relations with other countries - also thanks to our success in Karabakh."
Since the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, other former Soviet republics have changed their tone towards Moscow, says Dilnoza Ubaidullaeva, a lecturer at the Australian State University in Canberra and an expert on Central Asia. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, for example, in October 2022 demanded more respect from Putin for his country.
“Russia was considered a superpower, but Moscow failed to take over Ukraine in a few days, as it had planned. And the countries in the region noticed that," says Ubaidullaeva. In addition, international sanctions isolate Moscow and weaken the authority of the Russian government.
Opening up to other partners creates opportunities
And while with the help of some countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Russia manages to circumvent sanctions and receive certain goods, many of the former Soviet republics are now turning to others countries, emphasizes the political scientist.
“China is taking on an increasingly important role - Russia has already become the junior partner”, says Ubaydullaeva. “China is no longer interested only in economic relations, but also in being a security guarantor.” Thus, in 2023, the first China-Central Asia summit was held in the Chinese city of Xi'an, with the participation of the heads of state of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
However, all these efforts for independence have their limits, believes Azerbaijani political scientist Nariman Aliyev. “Our countries were colonies of Moscow for a long time. That is why we have a post-colonial syndrome”, he says. “The heads of state of the former Soviet Union grew up with the idea that Russia is number one. They feel connected to Moscow. This will change at the earliest with the next generation - in 10 or 20 years."
Author: Lisa Lewis