Link to main version

431

ISW: Russian Army Attacks Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure

Russian forces may also be trying to advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region to create conditions for further operations in the region

Снимка: БГНЕС/ЕРА

Russian forces recently penetrated Ukrainian defensive positions in two border towns in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but have not established permanent positions in the area.

On August 27, the spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian Group of Forces "Dnipro" Colonel Viktor Tregubov reported that Ukrainian forces have stopped the Russian advance in Zaporizhzhia (3.75 kilometers from the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions) and Novogeorgievka (730 meters from the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions), but that Russian forces are operating in both settlements and have not yet consolidated positions.

This is written by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW assessed in November 2024 that the Russian military command is likely to advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region to cut the Ukrainian ground communication lines that support Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region and to try to surround these positions.

Russian forces may also be trying to advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region to create conditions for further operations in the region.

Russian forces are using tactics in the Dnipropetrovsk region similar to those that used near Dobropil (northwest of Pokrovsk) in early August 2025. They operate in small groups of five servicemen who infiltrate behind Ukrainian lines, wait and build up, and then attack simultaneously from different directions.

Such tactics also appear vulnerable to well-organized Ukrainian counterattacks.

The Kremlin appears to be resuming its campaign of drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure before the winter of 2025, likely in an attempt to prevent Ukraine from resisting Russian aggression. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 95 "Shahed" drones and decoys from the directions of the cities of Kursk and Orel; Millerovo, Rostov Region; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea, on the night of 26-27 August.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 74 drones over northern, southern and eastern Ukraine and that 21 drones hit nine locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Russian strikes had caused power outages in Poltava, Sumy and Chernihiv regions, leaving more than 100,000 households without electricity.

The Ukrainian Energy Ministry said that the Russian strikes had damaged a critical electrical substation in the city of Sumy and gas transmission infrastructure facilities in Poltava region.

The Energy Ministry added that Ukrainian authorities considered the strikes a continuation of Russia's campaign to destroy Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the eve of the heating season. Ukrainian officials said Russian strikes also disabled water utilities in the city of Sumy and damaged an electrical substation in Novgorod-Seversky, Chernihiv region; a school in Kharkiv region; and an apartment building in the city of Kherson.

Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said a Russian strike on August 26 destroyed a coal enrichment plant in Donetsk region that prepares coal for heating.

The Kremlin is trying to undermine joint U.S. and European efforts to determine appropriate security guarantees for Ukraine by appearing to demand that Russia and the United States discuss the issues privately. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on August 27 that the Kremlin did not want to publicly discuss the issue of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, calling such public discussions "useless".

Peskov also said that Russia has a "negative attitude" to European proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine and that Russia would perceive the deployment of European forces in post-war Ukraine as an expansion of NATO's presence.

Peskov's statement was likely in response to the Financial Times (FT) report of August 26 that the United States was ready to provide support assets to a European-led force as part of post-war security guarantees for Ukraine.

Peskov's rejection of Western proposals for security guarantees and his efforts to discredit public discussions of these proposals are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to demand that Russia have a veto over any Western security guarantees for Ukraine and to exclude Ukraine's European partners from providing solid security guarantees to Ukraine as part of an agreement to end the conflict.

The Kremlin has signaled that Russian President Vladimir Putin is still unwilling to meet unconditionally with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Peskov reiterated the Kremlin's repeated apology that any contacts between Russia and Ukraine at a high or senior level require extensive preparation, but that the heads of the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams remain in contact.

Peskov added that Russia and Ukraine have not scheduled the next round of talks between their negotiating teams. Peskov sought to shift the blame for the Kremlin's reluctance to organize a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky onto Ukraine, saying that resolving the war requires "reciprocity from Kiev".

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan's continued support for Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and condemned the Soviet Red Army for the "invasion and occupation" of Azerbaijan in 1920 - which has further strained already deteriorating Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Aliyev said in an interview with the Saudi state-run Al Arabiya media outlet published on August 27 that "the Russian army invaded Azerbaijan and occupied the country" in 1920.

Aliev said Azerbaijan had "created its own state, but the Bolsheviks took it away from it." Aliyev also described Russia's war against Ukraine as an "invasion" and reiterated that Azerbaijan has supported Ukraine's territorial integrity since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Aliev recalled the "recent cooling" of Russian-Azerbaijani relations, saying that Azerbaijan "will never tolerate" any "aggression or disrespect." Aliyev said the downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane by Russia in December 2024 and the Kremlin's response "caused great disappointment and discontent" in Azerbaijan. Russian-Azerbaijani relations have been deteriorating since a Russian air defense system shot down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 over the Republic of Chechnya in December 2024, causing the plane to crash in Kazakhstan.

Aliev publicly rejected the Kremlin's attempts to cover up Russia's role in the days following the incident.

Russian-Azerbaijani relations continued to deteriorate in June and July 2025 due to small-scale incidents, which Aliyev took advantage of to reiterate his demands that Russia take responsibility for the plane crash.

Russian forces carried out a strike with a "Shahed" drone against the Ukrainian gas compressor station in the Odessa region, which transports Azerbaijani gas, on the night of August 5-6 and hit the oil depot of the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the city of Odessa on the night of August 7-8.