European leaders are considering creating a 40-kilometer buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian front lines as part of a peace deal. This is the latest idea that Moscow has embraced, and it would likely increase the modest number of peacekeeping troops on the continent.
This is reported by Politico, citing five European diplomats.
Officials disagree on how deep the actual zone could be, and it is unclear whether Kiev would accept the plan, as it would likely come with territorial concessions. The United States appears to be absent from discussions about the buffer zone.
But the fact that officials are playing with blocking a strip of land in Ukraine to enforce a fragile peace is indicative of the NATO allies’ desperation to resolve a war approaching its fourth year. Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no desire to stop the fighting. On Thursday, Moscow launched a rare attack on the center of Kiev, killing at least 19 people and damaging European Union (EU) offices.
"They are grasping at straws," said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official who was in charge of European and NATO policy during the administration of former U.S. President Barack Obama. The Russians are not afraid of the Europeans. If they think a few British and French observers will deter them from entering Ukraine, they are mistaken."
The separation is fraught with historical significance. European diplomats refrain from comparing it to the heavily guarded border between North and South Korea, which are technically still at war. They compare it more to the division of Germany during the Cold War.
Putin and his deputies have said they are working to create buffer zones along Russia’s border with Ukraine, which would increase the distance between Moscow and Ukrainian artillery and drones. But no details have emerged to suggest what those proposals would entail.
The number of troops needed to patrol the border also remains an issue. Officials are discussing anywhere from 4,000 to about 60,000 troops. But the countries have yet to make any commitments, and President Donald Trump has ruled out a potential U.S. troop presence.
NATO is already scrambling to prepare a 300,000-strong response force to protect the alliance’s eastern flank from a future Russian attack. Any peacekeeping force would play a dual role, patrolling near the demilitarized zone while simultaneously training Ukrainian troops, according to two of the diplomats. They and others spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter.
The allies are holding back on making public troop commitments while they await key details, according to one of the European officials. Their questions include the rules for engaging NATO troops on the front lines, how to manage a Russian escalation and whether they would need third countries to patrol the area if the Kremlin objects to the Alliance's troops in a buffer zone.
"Everyone is trying to move as quickly as possible on security guarantees so that Trump doesn't change his mind", about Putin's insistence on a negotiated agreement, one of the European officials said.
The buffer zone proposal was not raised at a video conference of NATO defense chiefs on Monday, which included the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Kaine, and NATO's supreme commander and head of U.S. European Command, Alexis Grinkevich, one of the European officials said.
French and British forces are likely to form the core of the foreign military presence, according to two of the European officials who said those countries were lobbying other allies to help provide military assets.
But that has worried NATO members on Russia's border, such as Poland, which has expressed concerns that it would leave the country vulnerable to attack. Allies have raised concerns with Pentagon leaders that a larger troop commitment would detract from the alliance's eastern flank defenses, the two officials said.
Some allies have expressed concern that creating a buffer zone could actually expose Ukrainian cities to additional risk of attack or re-invasion by Russia.
"This is not very sensible against an adversary that is not negotiating in good faith," one of the two European officials said.
Poland and Germany have said they are not interested in troops in Ukraine, while tiny Estonia has even promised to provide some forces. The allies expect Ukraine to contribute the lion's share of troops near any ceasefire or buffer zone, the third European official said.
The United States is perhaps the only NATO country with enough satellites available to provide aerial surveillance to ensure that Russia does not violate a ceasefire or peace agreement.
"Everyone is waiting for the political leaders of the Defense Department to clarify how far they are prepared to commit and let the Europeans show their cards, the first European official said. So it's a bit of a dance."