The rapid development of artificial intelligence is becoming one of the main drivers of the global economy, but at the same time it hides accumulating structural problems. Huge investments in data centers, semiconductors and technological infrastructure support growth, while high energy prices, government debts and financial imbalances continue to create risks. This is shown by analyses by ag. Bloomberg and the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
According to the updated IMF forecast, the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027. The Fund reports that businesses continue to adjust to a series of economic shocks, and financial markets maintain relatively optimistic expectations thanks to the technology sector.
However, this resilience may prove misleading. Investments in artificial intelligence are concentrated in a limited number of companies and countries, while traditional industries and emerging economies are having difficulty attracting capital.
A growing part of international financial flows is directed towards technological infrastructure. This limits resources that could be invested in other sectors or in government bonds, and increases the dependence of markets on the future returns of AI projects.
An additional risk is the high valuations of technology companies. If the expected productivity gains do not materialize quickly enough, investors may reassess the prospects for the sector. Such a development could cause turmoil not only in stock markets but also in economies that rely on exports of semiconductors and data center equipment.
Asian countries, which occupy a key position in the supply chains of the technology industry, are particularly vulnerable. According to analysis, a possible sharp correction in the artificial intelligence market could affect the region through a decline in exports, capital outflows and an increase in the cost of financing.
The International Monetary Fund also warns of the combination of several unfavorable factors - a prolonged energy shock, high indebtedness and uneven distribution of the benefits of technological progress.